\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 563 Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) )
In 2021, the performance under comparable standards increased by 14%. The company issued a performance express: 1) the company's revenue / performance in 2021 was 15.42/1.49 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1% / 84%; 2) under the comparable standard (excluding the kidiliz business that has been transferred in early September 2020): according to the company's announcement, the performance in 2021 increased by 14% under the comparable standard, and we estimate that the revenue increased by about 10% under the comparable standard. 3) In terms of Q4 alone, we estimate that the comparable caliber of revenue / performance in 2021q4 is basically flat / single digit decline respectively. 4) In terms of profit quality, the company's net profit margin was 9.6% in 2021. With the continuous recovery of terminals, the rise of brand strength and the stripping of K business, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin improved year-on-year.
The performance of children's clothing is stable, and adult clothing is still in the process of adjustment and recovery. From the perspective of brands: 1) children's wear business still occupies the leading advantage in China and its performance is stable. Brand side: balabalabala brand participated in the "tmall super product day" and held the Great Wall autumn and winter fashion show to further enhance the brand strength. Product side: style expansion, quality upgrading and terminal pulling. We judge that the annual children's wear business flow has a single digit growth compared with 2019. 2) Adult leisure clothing is still recovering, deepening product adjustment and promoting channel innovation. We judge that the annual flow of Senma brand has returned to about 80% in 2019 (improved compared with 2021q3).
Channel expansion and structure optimization. 1) Online retail brings new growth points. The company tiktok tiktok and other emerging opportunities, layout of the live center construction, 2021H1 voice GMV live broadcast 200 million, 12 times more. We judge that the online growth performance in 2021 (compared with 2019) is better than that offline. 2) Offline channels were optimized and adjusted. In 2021h1, the number of stores of the company increased by 8 to 8733 compared with the beginning of the year (including - 29 / + 37 to 5605 / 3128 for children's clothing / casual clothing respectively), and the digital operation of terminal retail and supply chain management were promoted at the same time.
It is expected to grow steadily throughout the year. The company adjusted and optimized its operation ideas, continued the reform of casual wear, created a lifestyle for children's wear business, and the overall recovery trend is good. 1) According to our tracking and estimation, the company's running water from January to February 2022 has a year-on-year low single digit growth. 2) Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, even if the current epidemic still fluctuates, we judge that the marginal impact is weakening. With the rise of the company's product power, brand power and channel retail capacity, we judge that the company's business is still expected to grow steadily year-on-year in 2022.
Investment advice. The company adjusted its business development. Under the influence of the external environment, we adjusted our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 14.9/16.8/1.9 billion yuan, and the current price will be 6.44 yuan, corresponding to 10 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; The reform of Senma brand business is less than expected; Channel expansion is less than expected; Overseas business expansion was less than expected.
