\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
The company issued the announcement of main performance data in 2021. The company expects to achieve a revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 23.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 17%; In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of about 16.48 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.02 billion yuan. In the single quarter of Q4, the revenue and performance increased by about 11% year-on-year.
Q4 performed steadily and ended smoothly in 2021. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company’s revenue and performance increased by about 11%, and the performance was basically flat compared with Q3. In the whole year, the company’s revenue / performance increased by about 15% / 17% respectively and ended smoothly Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the leader of Luzhou flavor, it has strong brand power and product power. Puwu is a benchmark product with a price of 1000 yuan. Looking back on the whole year, the price of puwu has increased steadily, and the company’s volume and price regulation has become increasingly refined. At the end of 2021, the company raised the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) average ex factory price to 969 yuan. In the future, with the company’s initiative to adjust the relationship between volume and price, it is expected that the batch price of puwu will increase steadily, Grasp the price of 1000 yuan with capacity expansion bonus.
Stabilize Zhiyuan in 2022 and be optimistic about the leading development of Luzhou flavor. At the 1218 conference in 2021, the company proposed that more efforts will be made in 2022. 1) product side: consolidate the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) core position and realize continuous optimization of plan configuration. We expect that under the general trend of the company’s fine adjustment of volume price relationship, the price of puwu is expected to rise steadily. At the same time, we will continue to promote the development of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the super high-end price belt, and continue to focus on building four national strategic brands and promoting the upgrading of series wines; 2) Channel side: optimize the traditional channels, expand the group purchase channels, promote the joint construction of manufacturers, optimize and improve the 1 + N + 2 channel mode, jointly increase market investment, do a good job in the cultivation of opinion leaders and circle marketing, and tell the story of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand; 3) Market side: stabilize the traditional advantageous market, expand highland market, key market and weak market, and promote the further development of the market. At present, the new management takes office and starts a new cycle of development. They are optimistic about the steady and far-reaching development of Luzhou flavor.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we are optimistic about the improvement of the company’s long-term brand strength and the volume of 1000 yuan price band, and slightly adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 66.30/74.88/83.93 billion yuan (formerly 68.37/80.34/94.94 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 15.7% / 12.9% / 12.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 23.35266229.95 billion yuan (formerly 24.30/291.0/35.03 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 17.0% / 14.0% / 12.5%, The current share price corresponds to PE from 2021 to 2023, which is 27 / 24 / 21x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of high-end wine fluctuates sharply; The poor coordination of volume price relationship leads to the damage of channel power; Thousand yuan price belt competition intensifies.
