\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Event: the company issued the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 130%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 650%.
The downstream demand of photovoltaic continues to be high, and the price of silicon material remains high. Globally, affected by geopolitics and epidemic, fossil energy prices have risen sharply recently, driving up electricity prices. On the one hand, downstream owners accept higher new energy installation costs, on the other hand, accelerate energy transformation to ensure safe and stable energy supply. At the same time, the fiscal year rush installation in Japan and other regions is superimposed, driving the accelerated release of photovoltaic installation demand. In China, Huadian announced the bid winning results of 15gw components, and the mainstream price range is 1.87 ~ 1.88 yuan / W. under the general trend of dual carbon transformation, China’s central state-owned power generation enterprises have gradually increased their acceptance of component prices. The demand for large-scale ground power stations has been gradually started, the demand continues to be high, and the silicon price remains high. According to the latest data of the silicon industry branch, The average transaction price of single crystal compact this week was 243900 yuan / ton, rising month on month.
Silicon material leader layout, large-scale capacity expansion, consolidate the leading position, lock in silicon material demand and ensure capacity release. As a leading polysilicon enterprise in the industry, the company takes the lead in arranging large-scale capacity expansion. At present, the company has a nominal capacity of 180000 tons of polysilicon (including Yongxiang new energy phase II and Baoshan phase I projects put into operation at the end of 2021). The follow-up capacity will continue to be built to consolidate its leading position. According to the company’s reply to the second feedback on the application documents for public issuance of convertible corporate bonds, the silicon material on hand currently includes orders for internal use, corresponding to 209200 tons in 2022 and 233600 tons in 2023, which will fully ensure the release of the company’s new production capacity.
We will continue to reduce the cost and improve the efficiency of the silicon industry, and consolidate the advantages of the silicon industry. According to the official account of Tongwei group, in November 30, 2021, the first batch of high-purity silicon was first released in Yongxiang new energy two phase 51 thousand tons silicon material project. The project adopts the sixth generation Yongxiang law with independent intellectual property rights, which can reduce the comprehensive electricity consumption to less than 45KWh/Kg-Si, reduce the heat consumption to 0, reduce the silicon unit consumption to 1.04, and improve the quality to two or more. Significantly refresh the industry’s advanced indicators, which is expected to further reduce the total cost of silicon material production. In addition, the 1000 ton electronic verification line built by the company in the same period is also advancing as planned. After the unit is put into operation, it is expected to further improve the quality of high-purity crystalline silicon products to higher quality standards.
Accelerate the large-scale transformation of battery cells and actively promote the layout of n-type technology. In terms of battery business, the company has accelerated its transformation to large-scale battery. It is expected that the company’s large-scale battery capacity will exceed 35gw in 2022 to further meet the downstream demand. In terms of n-type technology, the company has a layout around the two technical routes of hjt and TOPCON. In terms of heterojunction, the company put into operation a 400MW test line in 2019, with a maximum conversion efficiency of 25.18% and a mass production conversion efficiency of 24.66%. At present, the company has newly built a 1GW heterojunction pilot line, which is accelerating the process of capacity climbing. In terms of TOPCON, the company launched technology research and development based on 210 size in 2020, with a mass production conversion efficiency of 24.10%, which will accelerate the construction of 1GW TOPCON pilot line, actively grasp the historical node of battery technology transformation and maintain the leading position in the industry.
Performance forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 8.238/16.518/17.142 billion from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 23.7/11.8/11.4 times of PE valuation, and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected, and the company’s production capacity is not as expected.
