\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 363 Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) )
Event: the company released the business data announcement from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 55%, of which the functional skin care sector grew strongly.
The growth of functional skin care continued to be strong, the multi platform layout accelerated, and the cost rate of major brands continued to improve. The company's functional skin care maintained a strong growth rate. According to the performance express, we predict that the company's functional skin care revenue will reach 3.32 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 146.57% at the same time. Each brand has created a series of large single product explosive products, including the "third generation water run", "Qudi light age kinetic energy cream", "Mir blue bandage mask", "muscle live brown rice essence water" and so on. From the layout perspective, since last year, the company has also been developing tiktok, Jingdong, Xiao Hong, vip.com and other vertical platforms and distribution channels outside Tmall channel, and the vertical channel growth rate is higher than Ali platform. From the third tiktok data we traced, we have seen a significant volume of the company's vibrato channel and the monthly GMV of the brand can reach more than 10 million since the second half of last year. From the perspective of cost rate, the revenue volume of runbaiyan and kuadi is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan this year. With the increase of scale, the reduction of super head investment and the development of self broadcasting, the cost rate of the company's main functional skin care brands has an improvement trend.
Sili's core products have been approved in Hainan pilot area, and it is expected to continue to strengthen the explosive strategy. On December 26, 2021, the company's Sili products held a press conference in Hainan Free Trade Zone, at which it was announced that Hainan Provincial Drug Administration had approved the import of CytoCare Sili kinetin 516 and 532 as clinical urgently needed medical devices. The approval of Sili core products in Hainan pilot area is expected to accumulate valuable clinical data and promote the process of national listing of products. In the pharmaceutical machinery sector, we expect to maintain steady growth during the year. With the gradual rationalization of the organizational structure and channel structure last year, the company is expected to include more products in the explosive strategy during the year,
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is a leader in the global hyaluronic acid industry. The raw material business has developed steadily and continues to extend to the fields of terminal medical devices, cosmetics and food. The integration advantage under "four-wheel drive" is stable. We maintained the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 as 782 million yuan, 980 million yuan and 1227 million yuan, with an increase of 21.1%, 25.3% and 25.2% respectively. The current market value corresponds to 67x, 53x and 42x PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: R & D progress may be less than expected; The market promotion of new products may be less than expected.
