\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Events
On March 9, the company announced that from January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 16 billion yuan, an increase of about 130% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 650%.
Performance review:
The off-season of Q1 is not light and the demand is higher than expected, driving the continuous rise of the price of the industrial chain: with the reduction of construction in the middle and lower reaches and the completion of destocking at the end of December, superimposing the off-season of Q1 overseas and Chinese distributed demand, the construction in the middle reaches of photovoltaic has continued to recover since January, driving the higher than expected rise of silicon price under the background of the continuous release of new production capacity. According to the statistics of silicon industry branch, the average price of dense material on March 9 was 243.9 yuan / kg, which has increased by more than 13 yuan / kg compared with the low point of Q4 (quoted on December 29).
The volume of silicon materials in Q1 increased rapidly, and the net profit per watt of battery cells continued to be repaired: according to the climbing of the company’s new capacity of silicon materials, we expect the company to ship 35000 ~ 40000 tons in Q1, an increase of 21% ~ 38% month on month; The average sales price is expected to be 240 ~ 245 yuan / kg, unchanged / slightly increased month on month. Considering that the price of industrial silicon fell to 21000 ~ 24000 yuan / ton from 30000 ~ 38000 yuan / ton in early December, the profit per ton of Q1 silicon material is expected to increase month on month. Judging from the downstream production scheduling, the company’s Q1 battery shipment is expected to increase slightly on a ring basis; From the perspective of profitability, the price of Q1 battery chip keeps up with the upstream price changes both in terms of increase and price adjustment, and the net profit per watt is expected to continue to repair.
The terminal demand has increased in a multi-point explosive manner, and the duration of excess returns in the whole industrial chain, especially in the bottleneck link, may exceed expectations: Although the Q1 demand exceeds expectations due to rush loading in some overseas regions, considering that the shipment of rush loading in India in March is nearing the end, and the production scheduling in the middle and lower reaches of March remains high, We believe that this aspect verifies that under the background of global energy transformation and potential energy crisis in some regions, the demand for photovoltaic terminals shows a multi-point explosive growth trend of multi regions and multi scenarios. In the case of limited supply, the price of the industrial chain is determined by the cost bearing capacity of marginal demand. Therefore, the exceeding expectation of demand (intensity) will all be reflected in the exceeding expectation of the price of the industrial chain (i.e. the upward movement of the demand curve) and the expansion of the profit sector of the industrial chain. At this time, the bottle neck link of the industrial chain will grab most of the expanded profits due to the shortage of supply; When the speed and intensity of the demand side exceed the expectation and continue to exceed the expectation periodically, the duration of the entire industrial chain, especially the bottleneck link, to maintain the state of excess profit may also greatly exceed the expectation, so that the performance of relevant companies will continue to exceed the expectation.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions:
According to the disclosure of the company’s performance express, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 8.2 billion yuan. Considering that the bearing capacity of the terminal demand for photovoltaic costs in the near future was higher than expected, the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23e was raised by 173 (+ 21%) and 177 (+ 16%) billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.82, 3.84 and 3.94 yuan respectively in 21-23 years, maintaining the target price of 80 yuan, corresponding to 21 times of 2022pe, and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation worsened beyond expectations, the scale of industrial expansion exceeded expectations, and the change of technical route exceeded expectations.
