\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 080 Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) )
Deep cultivation of recombinant protein, rapid growth of performance: Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) is the leader of recombinant protein in China, and its products run through the R & D process of biological drugs. Its performance has increased rapidly in recent years. In 2021, the company expects a revenue of 382402 million yuan (+ 55% - 63%, year-on-year, the same below), and a net profit attributable to the parent of 170187 million yuan (+ 47% - 61%). If the median value of performance forecast is taken, Then the compound growth rates of revenue and net profit attributable to parent company in 20172021 are as high as 69.94% and 128.76% respectively. After covid-19 epidemic, the economies of scale have been significantly improved and the profitability has been greatly improved. The company has deep underlying technology, excellent product quality and in-depth understanding of industrial customers. The high growth does not depend on covid-19 business. Benefiting from the industry boom and the company's business expansion, we believe that the company's performance can still maintain a rapid growth of 40% - 50% from 2022 to 2024.
Biological reagent has a long slope and thick snow, and domestic substitution is in the Ascendant: biological reagent is sold for life science research. It has a wide range of applications from scientific research institutions to pharmaceutical enterprises, especially recombinant protein, which almost runs through the whole process of biological medicine. Relying on the vigorous development of biological drugs and the high growth of R & D investment, the market scale of biological reagents in China will be 15.9 billion yuan in 2020, the CAGR will be about 13.08% in 20202024, and the recombinant protein will be 1 billion yuan. In addition, it will benefit from the additional increment of antibody drugs and cell gene therapy, and the CAGR will be about 17.41% in 20202024. Foreign giants have monopolized the market for a long time. After more than ten years of development, Chinese enterprises have gradually comparable to imports in product quality. In addition, due to the rare window period brought by covid-19 epidemic, we believe that domestic substitution is an irreversible trend.
The company has deep underlying technology and sufficient potential for development: compared with peer companies, Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) continuous high R & D investment has created deep underlying technology, excellent product quality (the number of application test data of a single product is 3.09) and high consistency between batches, reflecting the company's in-depth understanding of industrial customers, At the same time, the global business layout opens up the space for enterprise development. The R & D of industrial customers mainly focuses on popular targets. The number of varieties with sales of more than one million accounts for only 4.12%, but contributes 46.2% of the revenue. We believe that the number of SKUs will not affect the growth of the company's performance in the short term. We expect that covid-19 business will further reduce its proportion in the company's revenue in 2021 to 23.5%, and there will still be a large amount of ownership this year. The CAGR of non covid-19 business will reach 58.8% in 20172021, and it is expected to maintain a high-speed growth of 50% in the future. With the further enhancement of global market influence and the horizontal expansion of business, there will be sufficient development momentum.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is the leader of China's recombinant protein industry with high boom development. We expect the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 391 million yuan, 562 million yuan and 777 million yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 177 million yuan, 266 million yuan and 372 million yuan respectively; The corresponding valuations of the current stock price are 74 ×， forty-nine ×， thirty-five ×， Considering that covid-19 business still exists, non covid-19 business maintains rapid growth and is covered for the first time, it is rated as "buy".
Risk tips: import substitution is less than expected, new product R & D is less than expected, market competition intensifies, covid-19 business demand declines, etc
