\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
Investment logic
Iron lithium gradually moves from homogenization to product and cost differentiation. We believe that the market corresponding to the downstream of iron lithium in the future is mainly divided into three types: energy storage (high cycle), high-end power (high energy density) and low-end power (cost performance). Due to the great difference in downstream demand, the process difference at the supply end has also begun to widen, and iron lithium products are moving from homogenization to differentiation.
Lithium iron phosphate: leading technology, building a moat of cost and product strength. Compared with the ordinary solid-phase method, the liquid-phase process of the company has the characteristics of low cost, high cycle times and high consistency. The company can prepare lithium iron phosphate by liquid-phase method, and the number of cycles (more than 8000 times) is much better than that of lithium iron battery prepared by solid-phase method, which can firmly stand in the lithium iron energy storage market.
New cathode materials: with obvious advantages in energy density and safety, it is expected to open the high-end power market. In November 2021, the company announced that Qujing German, a wholly-owned subsidiary, planned to build a “production base project of new phosphate series cathode materials with an annual output of 110000 tons”. The non-public offering proposal has been approved in March 22. We expect that the 110000 ton production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Q1 of 23 years. We believe that with the excellent performance of its new cathode material, the company is expected to increase its market share in the field of iron lithium high-end power.
Lithium supplement additive: the company continues to add weight to the lithium supplement industry chain, and is expected to obtain excess returns by virtue of its technology and card position advantages. The company announced the lithium supplement expansion plan in January 22, with a planned capacity of 20000 tons. According to the information such as patents disclosed by the company, it is speculated that the lithium supplement additive or lithium ferrite is the positive lithium supplement agent. The company adopts solvent method to prepare lithium supplement additives, which has the characteristics of high purity, low cost and high safety.
Capacity: under the background of high prosperity of power lithium iron battery and energy storage, we expect the effective equity shipments (including new cathode materials) of the company in 21, 22 and 23 years to be 89000, 184000 and 332500 tons.
Investment advice and valuation
The company is the global leader in lithium iron cathode. The liquid-phase process constructs a moat of deep cost and product strength. The production of new cathode materials is accelerated. The lithium supplement additive lithium ferrite is about to be launched, and the product competitiveness and category expansion logic are smooth. The company’s non-public offering plan has been approved, and we expect it to be implemented within this year. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 798 million yuan, 1230 million yuan and 1936 million yuan. With reference to comparable companies, the company will be given 50 times PE in 2022, with a target market value of 61.5 billion yuan and a corresponding target price of 689 yuan / share. It will be covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Market competition intensifies risks; The risk of overcapacity in the industry; Risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.
