\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Events
On the evening of March 9, 2022, the company released the monthly data from January to February of 2022: the estimated total operating revenue is more than 7.4 billion yuan, an increase of more than 35% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50% at the same time.
Key investment points
From January to February, the trend was good and the first quarter started well
From January to February 2022, the company’s total revenue was more than 7.4 billion yuan, an increase of 35% at the same time +; The net profit attributable to the parent company was more than 2.7 billion yuan, an increase of 50% at the same time. The overall trend of the company is good, and we think worry free 2022q1 performance.
Continue to focus on blue and white series, and focus on East and South China markets outside the province
In 2022, the company will continue to focus on the blue and white series, hold high and fight high, and Bofen will continue to control the quantity; Focus on three indicators: the first is the sales index of Qinghua Fen Liquor, the second is the terminal index of Qinghua 20, and the third is the index of Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group.
In terms of expansion outside the province, build three markets and focus on the markets in East China and South China. The three major markets refer to the first is the large base Market (in addition to the original base camp, it is emphasized that a strong base market will be built in the north of the Yellow River, with the North China market as the core barrier), the second is the East China market, and the third is the South China market. Again emphasize the importance of East China market (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui and other markets) and South China market (mainly including Guangdong, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and two lakes regions), and ask for market share from these two markets.
Five highlights of the company in the future: in-depth nationalization
Looking forward to 2022, although the company’s performance slowed down year-on-year in 2021, the revenue is still expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 25%. After the national reform in 2017, the company is rejuvenated in the second spring, and the brand revival is imminent. It is just around the corner to become maowufen.
We think the company’s five highlights in the future:
1) build a 2 + 2 brand, in which the first 2 refers to Fenjiu and Zhuyeqing, and the second 2 refers to Xinghua village brand and series brand. The core of Fenjiu and Zhuyeqing drives the development of the company, and Xinghua village brand and series brand are beneficial supplements.
2) a big health industry platform with Zhuyeqing as the core. Zhuyeqing is a core brand to be built by the company in the future and is expected to be large-scale in the future.
3) under the product strategy of “grasping both ends and strengthening the waist”, the blue and white series continues to enhance the brand strength of the company. The blue and white 30 · revival version seeks to bring large quantities of single products at a price of 1000 yuan, and Bofen consolidates the large single products at a price of 40-60 yuan, so as to strengthen the competitiveness of products from laobaifen and Panama.
4) implement the “1357” nationwide layout for regional expansion, and gradually build the marketing organization structure of 31 provinces and regions + 10 directly under the management area. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of revenue inside and outside the province is expected to increase from the current 4:6 to 3:7 in the future.
5) with the gradual completion of the company’s layout, the optimization of product structure and the deepening of national layout, the company’s net interest rate under the scale effect is expected to increase from more than 20% at present to more than 30% in the future.
Profit forecast
At present, the company’s brand potential continues to be released, focusing on building blue and white 30 revival version and entering the high-end wine camp. We expect that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.51/5.95/7.71 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 61 / 46 / 36 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic dragged down consumption, the growth of Qinghua was less than expected, and the expansion outside the province was less than expected.
