\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) announce the business announcement from January to February of 22. After preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
Key points supporting rating
In 2022, 1-2 months, sales increased by more than 35%, net profit increased by 50%, maintaining high growth momentum, leading the Baijiu industry. (1) In terms of products, the announcement mentioned that medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series have achieved substantial growth. We judge that due to the good brand potential, the company raised the requirements for the task proportion of blue and white products dealers in 2022, and both Qing 30 and Qing 20 achieved rapid growth. (3) According to the information of Fenjiu staff conference, in 2021, the Fenjiu billion yuan market increased to 22, the number of dealers outside the province increased by 30.5% year-on-year, and the number of controllable terminals increased to 1.05 million. It is expected that the market outside the province will continue to benefit from channel expansion in 2022, the nationalization will be deeply promoted, and the market south of the Yangtze River will achieve a breakthrough. (4) Due to the good completion of the plan from the first quarter to the third quarter of 21, the pace of revenue recognition in the fourth quarter is slow. However, the terminal demand still maintained a strong growth trend. At the end of 2021, the market condition was benign, and the inventory was at a historically low position, contributing to the high growth in the first quarter of 22 years. (4) The profit growth rate from January to February was higher than that of revenue, which may be related to the increase of the proportion of blue and white series.
Strategic good Fenjiu, callback is a good opportunity for layout. (1) in the past 5 years, Fen Liquor has been successful in 50 different products and two yuan products with a total price of 500 yuan. Baijiu is rare in the history of liquor development. Meanwhile, among the main products of sub high-end famous wines, Qing 30 is a rare variety that can double the rated price. These two events have confirmed the strong brand strength of Fenjiu. Looking forward to the future, it is worth looking forward to both the layout of the thousand yuan price belt and the health industry of Zhuye Qingda. (2) According to the information of the employee congress, the new chairman systematically summarized the achievements of the company in 2021, analyzed the challenges and deficiencies faced by the company's development, and put forward the development ideas in 2022. We believe that the new chairman has excellent resume and experience, and the new team can quickly complete the running in, continue the direction of reform and move forward quickly.
Valuation
It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.42 yuan, 6.18 yuan and 8.11 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 75%, 40% and 31%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Channel inventory exceeded expectations. The demand in the province is affected by the coal economy.
