\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Events
On March 9, the company issued a performance announcement for 2021. In the whole year of 21, the company achieved a revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 15% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 23.35 billion yuan, an increase of about 17% at the same time. Business analysis
21. The performance reached the expected end, and 22. The flexibility to go into battle with light equipment can be expected. According to the company’s announcement, the growth rate of revenue / net profit attributable to the parent in 21 years was 15% / 17% respectively, of which the growth rate of revenue / net profit attributable to the parent in 21q4 was 11%. In terms of products, 1) the dynamic sales at the channel end of puwu has recovered. The difference between the 21st year and the statement end is due to the impact of the shortage of goods in the early stage of reissue, and the upward supply leads to the pressure of the price of puwu in 1000 yuan within 21 years. In the year of 22, the company adjusted the policy of general five payment and raised the comprehensive payment price to 969 yuan; At present, the wholesale price of puwu is about 970 yuan, which is expected to be disturbed by the epidemic on the demand side, but the channel inventory under the control of the winery is still at a benign level for about 1 ~ 1.5 months. 2) Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will be introduced within 21 years, and the product structure will be gradually optimized. At present, the bid price has stabilized at about 1800 yuan, and the transaction price is aimed at 2000 yuan +. It is expected that the launch will be more free in 22 years. This year, the company emphasizes the “balance between supply and demand”, and the light loading will make the channel control more flexible. The price of puwu will stand firm and one thousand yuan is expected in the next year.
Internal and external rationalization is expected to resonate, and medium and long-term potential energy will be released. We believe that the company continues to improve and straighten out its products, channels and internal management: 1) on the product side, the company aims to consolidate the core market positioning of pu5000 yuan price band and introduce the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) target price band of 2000 yuan. The optimization of series liquor brands is expected to give birth to new large-scale single products. 2) On the channel side, the company set up a group buying department in 21 to create a consumer atmosphere for high-end products; The company will also optimize the dealer assessment index system and comprehensively consider the multi-dimensional contributions of dynamic sales, payment and consumer cultivation. At present, the management changes of the company have been implemented, and we are optimistic about the continuous release of follow-up business vitality.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering the impact of the epidemic + steady economic growth, and the new management is expected to take measures such as volume control to enhance channel confidence after taking office, we reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company by 1% / 6% / 7% in 21-23 years respectively; It is estimated that the growth rate of the company’s revenue in 21-23 years will be 15% / 12% / 14% respectively, with a corresponding revenue of 66.2/741/84.5 billion yuan; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 17% / 14% / 16% respectively, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 23.4/266/30.9 billion yuan; EPS is 6.01/6.86/7.97 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponds to PE of 27 / 24 / 20x. The valuation is cost-effective and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, intensified regional market competition and food safety problems
