\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
From January to February, the total single volume increased by 28% year-on-year, which verified that there was no worry about growth
from 6 Anhui Wantong Technology Co.Ltd(002331) -february, the single volume totaled 2.297 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, including 968 million pieces in February. After excluding the influence of the Spring Festival, the total single volume increased significantly, which verified the previous judgment. We believe that under the background of the rise of new business forms such as upstream live e-commerce and the decline of the value of Express single package goods, the single volume of the industry can still maintain relatively high growth, and the leader has more excess growth.
It is expected that the price policy of the headquarters will remain firm, and the ticket unit price is expected to increase more than expected over the next year
Although the express industry has entered the off-season from March to April, under the guidance of our analysis and policy supervision, the price policy of the headquarters is still tightened and the price side is still optimistic. Moreover, the experience of Zhejiang has gradually expanded to the whole country, and the prices in several key grain producing areas are expected to continue to repair. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the international oil price has increased significantly due to the turbulence of the external environment. We judge that the impact of oil price variables on the transportation cost side is expected to be transmitted upward. Overall, the ticket unit price is expected to achieve positive year-on-year growth.
The company preliminarily estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February was + 186% year-on-year, and the profit recovery was obvious
The company preliminarily estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February was 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 186.4%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 516 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 207.5%, and the profit was significantly repaired. In 2022, the company will continue to promote the comprehensive digital transformation and use digital management tools to realize the multidimensional improvement of express timeliness, service quality and customer experience. In addition, customer classification and product stratification have been gradually promoted, and "yuanzhunda" has been launched in multiple channels, anchoring the core advantages of timeliness upgrading and accurate delivery, and optimizing the customer structure to improve profitability.
Referring to the segment financial information in the company's 2020 annual report, the profit of the express segment accounted for about 87% in 2020. According to this proportion, we calculate that the net profit attributable to the parent of the company's express segment or contribution from January to February is 474 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent of the corresponding single ticket express is about 0.21 yuan, with obvious repair of profitability.
Core: entering the performance driven stage, the core period of value restoration should be low-level layout
Express value repair is divided into three levels of fundamentals, corresponding to two stages of market performance. Fundamental restoration can be divided into three levels: 1) gradual tightening of policy control, 2) price return to a reasonable range, and 3) bottom reversal of profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of last year, with the introduction of the policy, the price gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy control and price return, it has entered the most essential level of value restoration, that is, the level of profit restoration, and is optimistic about the certainty and flexibility of leading profit restoration.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that with the continuous strengthening of policy supervision, the competition of e-commerce express delivery tends to be orderly and the leader will be over repaired, we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 6 Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) 021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.092 billion, RMB 2.717 billion and RMB 3.644 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.4%, + 29.9% and + 34.1% respectively to the "buy in" rating.
Risk warning: loose policy supervision; The growth of e-commerce consumption is slowing down; Repeated price war.
