\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 799 Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) )
Matters:
Company announcement: according to the statistics of the passenger Federation, from January to February 2022, the production and sales of narrow passenger vehicles showed a positive growth trend year-on-year Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) 2022: from January to February, the company's operation was in good condition. According to the company's preliminary accounting, the company's operating revenue increased by about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by about 5% year-on-year. The operation of the company is normal and all work is carried out in an orderly manner.
Guoxin automobile's view: 1) from January to February 2021, the revenue increased by 25% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of revenue exceeded that of the industry. Assuming that 2022q1 continues the growth level of revenue and profit from January to February, it is estimated that the corresponding revenue of 2022q1 is about 2.4 billion (year-on-year + 25%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is about 300 million (year-on-year + 5%), and the corresponding net interest rate is about 12.5%. On the whole, the performance of the company in the first quarter is better. We believe that this is related to the recovery of production and sales of Volkswagen from January to February and the volume of new projects of Japanese and independent brand customers, It is expected that the company's performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter after the chip mitigation; 2) customer dimension, in March 2, 2022, according to Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) official account, Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) was awarded the "product safety excellent supplier" certificate by FAW Volkswagen. Industry side ADB and projection headlamp industry trend verification: the company side actively embraces forward-looking new technologies and front-end new customers, cooperatively expands the capacity circle of the industrial chain, steadily carries out overseas construction, long-term logic is smooth, short-term core shortage does not change the industry demand, and the company has long-term potential of global lamp leader. We maintain the previous profit forecast and expect a net profit of RMB 1.09/15.7/2.19 billion in 21 / 22 / 23, Corresponding to PE 33 / 23 / 16x respectively, update the one-year target valuation range of 198238 yuan. The short-term lack of core does not change the industry demand. The company has long-term potential as a global leader in lamps and maintains the buy rating.
Comments:
From January to February 2021, the revenue increased by 25% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of revenue exceeded that of the industry
According to the company's announcement, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a year-on-year increase of about 25% in operating revenue and a year-on-year increase of about 5% in net profit attributable to the parent company. Referring to the data of the passenger Federation, from January to February 2022, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles was 3.612 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and the retail sales volume was 3.324 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Under the background of lack of core and rising prices of raw materials, the company, From January to February 2022, the growth rate of the company's revenue exceeded the growth rate of the industry by 11.4pct, indicating the growth of the company beyond the industry.
The net profit of 2021t-2021t is expected to increase by about 2.45% year-on-year, which is mainly due to the fact that the net profit of 2021t-2021t is expected to increase by about 2.45% year-on-year from 2021t to 2021t, and the net profit of 2021t-2021t is expected to increase by about 2.25% year-on-year, The company's profit margin in the first quarter of this year has shown signs of month on month improvement.
On the whole, the company's performance in the first quarter was better. We believe that this is related to Volkswagen's production and sales recovery from January to February and the volume of new projects of Japanese and independent brand customers. It is expected that the company's performance will improve quarter by quarter after the chip mitigation.
Customer dimension, Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) recently won the honorary certificate of "excellent supplier of product safety" issued by FAW Volkswagen
On March 2, 2022, Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) won the honorary certificate of "excellent supplier of product safety" issued by FAW Volkswagen. "Excellent supplier of product safety" is the commendation given by the quality assurance vehicle analysis center of FAW Volkswagen Co., Ltd. to key suppliers for their excellent performance in PSB promotion in 2021. A total of 98 suppliers participated in this activity, and only 7 finally won this recognition. Never forget the original intention and live up to the trust. In 2022, Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) heart R & D and innovation will repay customers with better achievements.
Investment suggestion: from January to February, the company's performance was stable, with long-term potential as a global leader, and maintained the "buy" rating
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the company's performance in the first quarter is expected to be stable. We believe that this is related to Volkswagen's production and sales recovery from January to February and the volume of new projects of Japanese and independent brand customers. It is expected that the company's performance will improve quarter by quarter after the chip mitigation. In the medium and long-term dimension, the trend of ADB and projection headlamp industry at the industry side is verified. The company side actively embraces forward-looking new technologies and front-end new customers. The industrial chain cooperates to expand the capacity circle. Overseas construction is progressing steadily and the long-term logic is smooth. The short-term lack of core does not change the industry demand, and the company has the potential of global lamp leader for a long time. Considering that the lack of core in the industry has led to a significant decline in the output of the company's core customers, such as FAW Volkswagen, we maintain the previous profit forecast. We expect the net profit of RMB 1.09/15.7/2.19 billion in 21 / 22 / 23, corresponding to PE 33 / 23 / 16x respectively. We update the one-year target valuation range of RMB 198238. The short-term lack of core does not change the industry demand. The company has long-term potential as a global leader in lamps and maintains the buy rating.
Valuation of comparable companies: we select Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) , the core target of the lamp industry chain Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , and the leading enterprise of shock absorption and sound insulation Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) for valuation of comparable companies (the market value of comparable companies is close). The average PE of the three comparable companies in 2023 is about 21 times. The updated one-year target valuation of Xingyu (corresponding to 2023) is 198238 yuan (corresponding to 25-30 times of pe3 in 2023). The current share price (129.99 yuan) still has about 53% - 83% room for improvement from the target valuation and maintains the buy rating.
Risk tips
Risk of core shortage in the industry; The prosperity of China's auto market continues to face downward risks; Annual decline and raw material price fluctuation risk.
