\u3000\u3 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 205 Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021], the company’s operating income was 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.2%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.3%. The company’s performance basically met the expectations.
The transportation volume of chemicals was + 25% year-on-year, and the transportation volume of oil products was – 18% year-on-year; The gross profit of transportation business was -4.25pp year-on-year.
In 2021, the company achieved a liquid chemical transportation volume of 3.95 million tons (+ 25%), the corresponding chemical transportation revenue was 490 million yuan (+ 39%), and the gross profit margin was 39% (- 3.73pp); The annual oil transportation volume was 646000 tons (- 18%), the corresponding oil transportation revenue was 90 million yuan (- 16%), and the gross profit margin was 30% (- 8.87pp). The chemical and oil transportation business realized a gross profit of 220 million yuan (+ 10%), corresponding to a comprehensive gross profit margin of 37.5% (- 4.25pp), of which the chemical transportation business contributed 88% of the gross profit. Due to the increase of business volume in 21 years, the gross profit of the company was affected to a certain extent by the leasing of ships and external leasing business. At the same time, due to the influence of factors such as oil supply and demand and price fluctuation in 21 years, the gross profit of oil transportation also decreased significantly.
In the 21st year, the operating cash flow was 640 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 37%, and the three rate increased by + 4.1%. In 21 years, the company realized net cash flow of 640 million (year-on-year + 37%). The three rates increased by 4.1% year-on-year, of which the financial expenses / management expenses / sales expenses were 14 / 32 / 24 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 30% / + 28% / + 25%, of which the significant year-on-year decrease in financial expenses was due to the decrease in the current interest of the company’s repayment of loans.
The company expects to expand its fleet to 30 ships in 22 years; The supply and demand of hazardous chemicals transportation industry continues to maintain a tight balance.
At present, the company has 22 fleets (20 years on year + 5), with a total transport capacity of 140000 tons, including 113000 tons of chemical ships and 31000 tons of oil tankers. The company has made clear the path of self construction + outsourcing to realize the transportation capacity expansion strategy. The water surface hazardous chemicals transportation industry promotes the industry standard through the improvement of asset securitization rate, which is also matched with the regulatory “supporting the excellent and the strong”. In the year of 22, the company expects to add 8 ships, with a total new transport capacity of 60000 tons (47000 tons of chemicals and 13000 tons of oil products), including 2 self built ships and 6 purchased ships. At that time, the average tonnage of the company is expected to increase from 6568 tons to 6667 tons. In 2021, the scale of the national coastal liquefied goods fleet totaled 284 (20 years on year + 4), with a total tonnage of 1.289 million tons, corresponding to 3.9% of 16 ~ 21 CAGR. The hazardous chemicals transportation industry is a strongly regulated industry with strong supply constraints, and the supply and demand of the industry maintain a tight balance.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 200 million, RMB 260 million and RMB 320 million respectively, corresponding to a compound growth rate of 36% in 22-24 years. The coastal hazardous chemicals transportation industry is in the resonance cycle of continuous growth of upstream demand and the improvement of the degree of intensification of the industry itself + accelerated expansion of the head company. Considering the company’s clear expansion path and high growth, it maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: fluctuation risk of chemical industry, risk of safe operation and environmental protection, and risk of rising operating costs.
