\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company disclosed the operating data from January to February 2022. The company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 35%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of more than 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%; The performance exceeded market expectations.
The good start will be realized as scheduled, and the strong growth potential will continue. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company took the initiative to control goods and sort out channels, so as to store energy in advance for the Spring Festival in 2022. During the Spring Festival in 2022, relying on Risheng’s brand potential, the company overcame the adverse impact of the national sporadic epidemic outbreak, upgraded the product structure and expanded nationwide, and made a good start as scheduled. Specifically: 1. The company firmly adheres to the strategy of “grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”, in which blue and white series leads high growth. It is expected that blue and white will increase by more than 50% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, driving the continuous optimization of product structure; Among them, the youth 20 led the high growth, and the Renaissance edition solidly promoted circle marketing and consumer cultivation; Panama and laobaifen are introduced outside the province in an orderly manner, and there is still considerable growth under the control of Bofen; 2. The nationwide expansion of Fenjiu is unstoppable. By the end of last year, the company had 28 billion market in China, and the number of distributors increased by more than 300 in the whole year. The proportion of large and excellent merchants continued to increase, and the number of controllable terminal outlets exceeded one million; 3. The company continues to promote the construction of echelon, flat and young marketing system, forming a 31 + 10 regional layout. At present, more than 80% of the heads of sales regions are post-80s. The marketing team is in full swing, and the key activities such as channel construction, price protection and consumer cultivation have been solidly promoted.
High end and nationalization go hand in hand, and we are optimistic about the high elasticity of the whole year. 1. In the case of macroeconomic pressure and sporadic outbreak of the epidemic, the company fulfilled its expectations of a good start and growth toughness as scheduled; Looking forward to the whole year, the company’s product structure will blossom at many points, and the nationwide expansion is unstoppable. It has both stability and growth, and the growth rate will continue to lead the first-line famous wines. 2. The brand potential of the company continues to be released. Qinghua 20 has obvious advantages in brand power and channel power at the secondary high-end price of 400 yuan, and the high growth can be expected throughout the year; With the comprehensive replacement of the old blue and white 30 by the Renaissance version, the company has strengthened the cultivation of the Renaissance version, and the growth rate of the Renaissance version can be expected; In addition, Panama and laobaifen at the waist continued their steady growth, while Bofen and Zhuyeqing performed commendably and had full determination for steady growth. 3. The new chairman, Mr. Yuan, has a strong annual force. In 2022, he aims to take the improvement of brand value as the primary goal and take advantage of the momentum to promote the higher quality development of Fenjiu. Mr. Yuan clearly puts forward the “Four Focuses” and “four insistences”, with clear direction and planning, the overall improvement of the company’s operation efficiency, and the reform dividend is expected to be released continuously.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The release of the company’s brand potential is accelerated and the national expansion is getting better. It is expected that the EPS will reach 4.36 yuan, 6.56 yuan and 8.93 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 63 times, 42 times and 31 times of the dynamic valuation, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp economic decline and the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic
