\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
Core view
In 2021, the performance increased year-on-year, and the asset liability ratio continued to decline. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.95%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 7.336 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.33%. Among them, the operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 7.104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.11%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.808 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.41%. In 2021, the company’s asset liability ratio was 30.84%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.19 percentage points. During the reporting period, the gross profit margin of the company decreased slightly to 42.21% year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased to 30.35% year-on-year. The gross profit margin of olefins decreased to 32.31% year-on-year, the gross profit margin of coking products increased slightly to 55.23%, and the gross profit margin of fine chemical products increased to 38.34%. Benefiting from the improvement of coke gross profit, the overall net interest rate of the company maintained an upward trend.
We strengthened technological innovation, and the unit consumption of energy and materials continued to decline. According to the disclosed data, through continuous optimization of operating parameters, the unit consumption of methanol in the second olefin plant of the company was 2.852 tons / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.033 tons / ton. The unit consumption of raw coal for methanol production from methanol plant 1 is 1.41 tons / ton, and that of methanol plant 2 is 1.37 tons / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.07 tons / ton, maintaining a low unit consumption level in the industry. The output of MTO grade methanol of the company reached 4.574 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 35.85%, which reduced the purchased amount of methanol and greatly saved the purchase cost of raw materials.
The company has sufficient projects under construction and planning, and the “14th five year plan” has long-term growth. The projects under construction include dingjialiang coal mine and Ningdong phase III 1 million T / a olefin project. It is expected that the phase III project will be put into operation in the first half of 2023, and the construction progress of supporting EVA capacity has been more than half at present. The 500000 T / a coal to olefin project of Ningdong phase IV has been publicized for environmental impact assessment. The company’s 2.6 million T / a phase I project in Inner Mongolia is under approval. The comprehensive energy consumption of Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ethylene and propylene is 2396kg standard coal / ton, and the coal consumption is 4526kg standard coal / ton, ranking first among coal to olefin enterprises, The energy consumption per unit product is lower than the energy efficiency benchmark level (2800kg standard coal / ton) in the notice on energy efficiency benchmark level and benchmark level in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2021 Edition), which meets the energy efficiency requirements of new projects. It has a high probability of passing the approval. The company’s overall planning project performance contribution rhythm is stable and has good long-term growth.
Risk warning: the risk of falling product price; The risk of tightening environmental protection and low-carbon policies such as dual control of energy consumption; Risk that the project is put into operation less than expected; The impact of sharp fluctuations in coal prices.
Investment suggestion: growth leading low-carbon coal chemical industry, maintain the “buy” rating. The company has outstanding advantages of low-cost coal to olefin, and the production rhythm of planned construction projects is clear. Under the background that the price of coking coal is easy to rise but difficult to fall, the gross profit margin of the company remains at a high level. We are optimistic about the steady long-term growth of the company during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.212112.56/14.593 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.12/1.53/1.99 yuan, corresponding to the current share price PE of 15 / 11 / 8x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
