\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Matters:
Company announcement: from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 2.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 940 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 26%.
Guoxin food and drink view: 1) the successful start has been achieved, and the contribution of Guoyuan series has increased steadily; 2) Focus on V-series breakthrough and breakthrough outside the province, and steadily upgrade the product structure; 3) Investment suggestion: be optimistic about the gradual improvement of the potential energy of Guoyuan brand and the large-scale potential of V-series, and the growth inside and outside the province can be expected. We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.46/79.6/9.77 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.02/25.5/3.19 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 1.61/2.03/2.54 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 29 / 23 / 18x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Comments:
The successful start was achieved, and the contribution of Guoyuan series increased steadily
According to the channel feedback, the progress of payment collection since the Spring Festival is good (the expected proportion of payment collection is 30 ~ 40%), the dynamic sales remain stable, and the price is relatively stable. At present, the rated price of counter opening / four opening is about 280 / 420430 yuan. The company hopes to stabilize the price. After the off-season, it focuses on combing the price system. The cost control is significantly strengthened, and the subsequent price is expected to be further improved. The company’s revenue performance from January to February is in line with our expectations, and Guoyuan series is expected to contribute mainly to the growth. Sikai is highly recognized by consumers in the province. After upgrading, its sales momentum remains unchanged. At present, it is still in a period of rapid growth, and the ceiling in the province is still high; V series has good sales in Nanjing and Suzhou, nearly doubled in 21 years, and is expected to continue the high growth trend in 22 years. Among them, V3 benefits from the price of 600 ~ 700 yuan in the province, the growth rate is relatively faster, and the proportion of V series is expected to further increase from about 10%.
Focus on V-series tackling difficulties and breakthroughs outside the province, and steadily upgrade the product structure
V-series refers to the 10-year revenue target of 10 billion yuan. The company has made every effort to do V-series. In the past 20 years, the V9 business department has been established. In the past, the marketing personnel were not completely separated. This year, a V-series team was established separately to take the lead in the pilot operation effect in Suzhou Wuxi Changzhou, and may be rolled out to other regions in the second half of the year. At the end of last year, the company established V99 alliance autonomous organization, hoping to promote dealers to make V-series, with an upper limit of 99 customers, 38 members in the first batch and more than 40 at present. At present, the overlap between V-series dealers and old K-series dealers is high. With the adjustment of personnel and organizational structure, it is expected to realize structural optimization in the future. In addition, this year, the company issued policies to encourage people in the province to start businesses outside the province, and the determination to expand outside the province has been strengthened.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about the gradual improvement of the potential of Guoyuan brand and the large-scale potential of V-series, the growth can be expected inside and outside the province, and maintain the “buy” rating
We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.46/79.6/9.77 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.02/25.5/3.19 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 1.61/2.03/2.54 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 29 / 23 / 18x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of large-scale recurrence of the epidemic, and the risk that the demand for high-end wine is lower than expected.
