\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Matters:
Company announcement: in 2021, the company expects to achieve revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan (+ 15%), net profit attributable to the parent company of about 23.35 billion yuan (+ 17%), and EPS of about 6.0 yuan / share. In 2021, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased compared with the same period of the previous year, mainly due to the continuous growth of the volume and price of the company’s core products.
(1) steady operating quality of Guoxin Food Co., Ltd. in 2024; 2) 2022q1 has a good start, and the price increase of main products is expected to contribute to the performance; 3) The main brands and series of wines have made steady progress, and the new growth of endogenous extension can be expected; 4) Investment suggestion: the current valuation has a strong cost performance, and we will continue to firmly recommend it. We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 66.2/78.8/89.5 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 23.35/28.4/33.41 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 6.02/7.32/8.61 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 27 / 22 / 19x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Comments:
2021q4 has stable operation and stable profit quality
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the terminal mobile sales have maintained a relatively smooth state, and the volume of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and group purchase channels has been steadily promoted. It is estimated that the revenue of 2021q4 company is about 16.48 billion yuan (+ 11.1%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is about 6.02 billion yuan (+ 11.3%), which is basically in line with the expectation; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021 is about 35.3% (+ 0.5pct), of which the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is about 36.5% (+ 0.1pct), and the profitability is stable and good.
2022q1 has a good start, and the price increase of main products is expected to contribute to the performance
At the end of last year, the company raised the prices of puwu, 1618, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other main products, and implemented the new prices in the Spring Festival of 2022. During the Spring Festival of the 22nd year, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) payment collection was good (the expected proportion of payment collection was about 40%), the dynamic sales was fast (still hard currency), the price was stable (the general five / classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rated price remained at about 965980 yuan / 1800 yuan), and the inventory was good (the dealer’s inventory was about 20-30 days). The price increase did not significantly affect the collection and dynamic sales, and is expected to significantly contribute to the performance of the first quarter. At the same time, considering that the cost price of puwu dealers has been raised to 969 yuan / bottle, combined with the company’s off-season price control strategy, it is expected that the price of puwu is expected to be further improved during the year, and time for space. We expect that the revenue growth rate in 2022q1 may be about 15 ~ 17%, and the profit growth rate may be about 16 ~ 19%.
The main brands and series of wines have made steady progress, and the new growth of endogenous extension can be expected
In the short term, the inventory, price and dynamic sales of the main brands remain benign, the Spring Festival has made a successful start, laying the foundation for the annual performance, and the upgrading of the structure of the series of wines has been steadily promoted. In early March, the new famous family of wuliangchun has been listed, positioning the secondary high-end strategic products. It is suggested that the retail price of 728 yuan ranks first in the series of wines, further enhancing the brand image; In the medium and long term, after the change of the core leadership of the company, the management efficiency is expected to be improved and the executive power is expected to be enhanced, which will promote the continuous upgrading of the product structure of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and series of liquor. The market had some concerns about the company’s development direction and brand operation strategy due to changes in management. Now the boots are on the ground, and a major factor that suppressed the company’s valuation in the early stage is expected to be gradually lifted.
Investment advice: the current valuation has a strong cost performance, continue to firmly recommend and maintain the “buy” rating
We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 66.2/78.8/89.5 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 23.35/28.4/33.41 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 6.02/7.32/8.61 yuan, and the corresponding current share price PE will be 27 / 22 / 19x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic fluctuation, the risk of large-scale recurrence of the epidemic, and the risk that the demand for high-end wine is lower than expected.
