\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: on March 9, 2022, the company issued the announcement on the operation from January to February 2022: according to the preliminary accounting of the company, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was more than 2.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year, in line with expectations.
Key investment points
The performance achieved high growth from January to February of 22 years, and the growth potential of the whole year is still expected. According to the company’s business announcement, from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than + 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than + 50%. The growth potential of 22q1 company remains the same. Combined with channel feedback, since the Spring Festival peak season of 22 years, the channel has strong enthusiasm to make money and prepare goods. Qinghua 20 and Bofen still perform strongly, and the dynamic sales performance is good. The growth rate of 22q1 in advantageous markets such as East China is brilliant, and the structural upgrading effect is good. At present, the inventory across the country is at a low level. The wholesale price of Qinghua 20 is about 380 yuan, and the wholesale price of Fuxing version is stable at about 820 yuan. In the next 22 years, the company will adjust and optimize the dealer quota to encourage dealers to increase the promotion and sales of blue and white 30 revival version, focus on blue and white, and promote the improvement of product structure.
In the future, high-end & nationalization will continue to seek benign and sustainable growth. Looking forward to 22 years, the company will continue to improve its product structure. It is expected that Qinghua 20 will maintain high growth, Qinghua 30 revival version will achieve large-scale volume on the basis of stable price, Panama and laobaifen will penetrate into the market around Shanxi, and Bofen will continue to control the volume. In the past 21 years, the company carried out the investment promotion and distribution of Qinghua 30 revival version, focusing on the cultivation of consumers and the creation of atmosphere, and strengthened the investment in marketing and promotion expenses. We believe that as the leader of fragrance, the company has room for continued high-end development, and the blue and white 30 revival version still has a large volume space in the 1000 yuan price band. At present, the company’s brand potential remains the same. The company continues to promote nationalization and continuously improve the market share in the south of the Yangtze River. The market strategy is clear and clear, and there is still a period of benign and sustainable growth in the future. At the same time, according to the research feedback, under the company’s standardized assessment and strengthened incentive, the stability and efficiency of the current sales team can be continued to provide guarantee for high-quality development.
Investment suggestion: Based on the company’s 21q4 control of goods to lay out the next year, we slightly adjust the company’s profit forecast: it is estimated that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 209.62/272.34/343.52 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 49.8% / 29.9% / 26.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.499/74.83/9.716 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 78.6% / 36.1% / 29.8%. The corresponding EPS is 4.51/6.13/7.96 yuan respectively, maintaining the company’s “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic slowdown, industry growth may be lower than expected; The company focuses on blue and white series, the industry competition intensifies, and the income of blue and white series may be lower than expected; In the process of promoting the nationalization of the company, the market expansion outside the province may be less than expected.
