\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Event: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) released the operating data from January to February 2022. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, 2022m1-m2 achieved a volume of 2.3 billion express pieces, a year-on-year increase of + 27.8%, an operating revenue of 7.62 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of + 39.3%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 186.36%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of about 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 207.45%, and the operating performance exceeded expectations.
The demand for verification of piece quantity data is secure, and the price of single ticket express delivery continues to improve. The company disclosed that 2022m1-m2 achieved 2.3 billion express pieces, a year-on-year increase of + 27.8% (21m1-m2 achieved 1.78 billion pieces). By month, 22m1 achieved 1.33 billion express pieces (a year-on-year increase of + 4.8%), and 22m2 achieved 970 million express pieces (a year-on-year increase of + 83.4%). According to the express industry development index disclosed by the post office, the number of pieces increased by 48% in February, corresponding to 6.82 billion pieces of 22m2 express. There is no need to worry about the growth of pieces at the industry and company levels. The required consumption defense attribute of low-cost e-commerce express is prominent.
In 2021, the national and local governments successively issued policies to control the irrational competition in the industry. In early September, the express companies in the industry announced the increase of distribution fees under the control, and the competition gradually shifted from price driven to value driven. Since the peak season, the ASP in the express industry has been rising, with 22m1 Yuantong ASP reaching 2.72 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.6% and a month on month increase of + 8.8%. The single ticket service price in the express industry has improved significantly.
Digitization + stable quality + customer structure optimization, helping the company's performance to improve steadily. The company continues to promote comprehensive digital transformation, pay attention to service quality, improve customer stratification and product upgrading, and improve product pricing ability. In addition, the company optimized the customer structure, improved the customer composition, and the company's profitability continued to improve. On the whole, the profitability of the company continued to improve. In the first two months of 22 years, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 186.36%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 207.45%; Compared with the parent company, the monthly profit of non parent company was RMB 202.7 billion, and the net profit of non parent company was RMB 5.41 billion. From the perspective of single ticket, the business improvement is more obvious due to the superposition of scale effect. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 22m1-m2 single ticket is 0.24 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.4%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company deducted from single ticket is 0.22 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.4%.
Continuous verification of industry development chain. The industry development chain described in the previous report: bottom of policy → bottom of unit price → bottom of profit. The industry has verified the bottom of policy since April 2021. In September 2021, companies announced the increase of distribution fees, and the bottom of unit price has been continuously verified by industry data and company data. 22m1-m2 business data shows that the performance has improved steadily. The industry competition has changed from price driven to value driven, which leads to the reconstruction of Industry Valuation: the valuation system under the competition of muscle (capital) → the valuation system under the competition of business services. The industry has entered the development stage of profit recovery of the headquarters, and will enter the track of long-term slow price rise to absorb inflation costs / labor costs / system costs (five insurances and one fund). The cost brought by the scale benefits of the industry itself continues to decrease, the leader has a very high long-term profit space, and the company's performance will grow steadily.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We maintain the profit forecast of 2021 / 22 / 23 as 2.1, 2.9 and 3.5 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.62 yuan, 0.84 yuan and 1.03 yuan respectively, and PE of 2021 / 22 / 23 as 26x, 19x and 16x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the price war intensifies, the policy implementation is not as expected, the growth rate of e-commerce declines, and the labor cost rises sharply.
