\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 012 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) )
Event: the company issued the draft of equity incentive in 2022 and plans to grant a total of 37.54 million shares to 2506 core management and technical personnel, accounting for 0.69% of the total share capital. Among them, the exercise price of 34.98 million stock options is 62.20 yuan / share, and the grant price of 2.56 million restricted shares is 38.87 yuan / share.
The company income + individual performance appraisal mode is conducive to the long-term development of the company. The equity incentive is unlocked in three phases, and the assessment at the company and individual levels is clear: 1) at the company level, it is required that the revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 80% / 120% / 175% compared with that in 2020; 2) At the individual level, the individual annual performance appraisal performance is divided into five levels, and only those with outstanding, excellent and good grades can be unlocked. This is the first equity incentive since 2016, which reflects the company’s confidence in the current stock price and is also of great significance to the company to ensure the stability of core members.
The silicon wafer operating rate continued to rise, and the leading position of components was stable. As 2022q1 China distributed high growth + overseas India rush to install, the market demand is strong, the company’s silicon wafer operating rate continues to rise, and the silicon wafer price has been raised for many times recently. We expect that 2022q1 silicon wafer will be exported to 8-9gw, and the profit will be in the leading position in the industry. In 2022, the export will be 35-40gw, basically the same year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of the proportion of silicon wafer self supply and the shift of focus to battery components; The company’s HPBC new technology is progressing smoothly and can be verified in the middle of the year; In 2022, the component sector benefited from the simultaneous increase in volume brought by the price reduction of silicon materials. We expect that the component shipment of 2022q1 company will be 10-11gw, with an increase of 59-75%, the annual shipment will be 60-65gw, with an increase of 60-70%, the market share will increase to 23-25%, and the global component longyi position will be stable; Superimposed on the contribution of silicon equity and capacity, we expect the company’s performance to maintain a high growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the rising price of silicon materials, fierce competition in silicon wafers and strong game in the industrial chain, we lowered the company’s profit forecast. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 9.29/14.22/19.04 billion from 2021 to 2023 (the previous value was RMB 11.3/152.4/20.44 billion), a year-on-year increase of + 8.61% / + 53.05% / + 33.92%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.72/2.63/3.52 from 2021 to 2023, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the policy is not as expected, and the competition is intensified.
