\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event:
The company issued a business announcement. After preliminary accounting, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
Key investment points:
The Spring Festival has a strong dynamic sales, which is locked in advance, and the first quarter has a good start. By the end of 2021, Fenjiu channel inventory reached a record low, and the price system and dealers’ profits were good, laying a solid foundation for this year. The collection and sales at the beginning of the year exceeded expectations, the dynamic sales during the Spring Festival were benign, and the bottle opening rate remained at a high level. Blue and white and other medium and high-end products achieved substantial growth, and the revived version comprehensively replaced the old version of blue and white 30. The profit growth was faster than the income.
Focus on structural adjustment and focus on “three sectors” in layout. This year, the company will continue the strategy of “controlling Bofen and pulling out the medium and high” and systematically cultivate Qinghua. Qinghua 40 will lead the value, Qinghua 20 will strive for large-scale, and Qinghua 30 will achieve steady price increment; Waist old Baifen has been out of stock since 2021, and will be separated inside and outside the province in the future; Bofen strictly controls the quantity and upgrades its products. The market layout continues to move towards the goal of nationalization, focusing on the three sectors of the base, East China and South China. The province maintains sound and healthy development, and the product structure outside the province is continuously optimized on the basis of regional expansion.
The team is stable, the strategy is firm, and we are optimistic about the revival of Fenjiu. Since taking office, chairman yuan has fully demonstrated his pragmatic style and open attitude, fully affirmed the achievements of the company in the past in many exchanges, and repeatedly stressed the need to maintain the continuity of the company’s strategy and team; It also puts forward the “four insistences” to continuously deepen enterprise reform. Fen Liquor is one of the few liquor enterprises that can enjoy the double price dividends of secondary high-end expansion and high-end bottled liquor. On the one hand, the company shoulders the rejuvenation mission of “one third of the world”, on the other hand, as a provincial key enterprise, it has undertaken many tasks of economic development in Shanxi. After the rapid development from 2017 to 2021, the company’s performance base and market expectations are at a high level. The leadership is determined to forge ahead and pay more attention to the high quality of growth.
The product structure of profit forecast and investment rating has been continuously optimized. There are bright spots inside and outside the province, and the long-term growth trend is clear. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.49/6.11/7.88 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 61 / 45 / 35 times respectively, giving a “buy” rating.
The risk indicates that the epidemic situation repeatedly affects consumer demand; Increased market competition leads to increased costs; The expansion or dynamic sales outside the province are less than expected; The sharp fluctuations in the economy caused the price of high-end Baijiu to decline.
