\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Event:
Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) released the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022:
From January to February, the company completed 2.297 billion express business, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36%; The non net profit deducted was about 516 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207.45%.
Key investment points:
The off-season is not light, and the performance of 6 Anhui Wantong Technology Co.Ltd(002331) -february exceeded expectations
In September, October and November 2021, in response to the call of industrial regulatory policies and the arrival of the peak season of the industry, the express industry carried out three rounds of price increases. The single ticket income of the leading enterprises continued to improve and the single ticket profit continued to repair. 2022q1 is the first off-season since the new deal. Observing the business data of enterprises from January to February is an acceptance of the price increase results of enterprises in the peak season of 2021.
From January to February 2022, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) realized a net profit of about 545 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 186.36%; The non net profit deducted was about 516 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207.45%. The non net profit deducted from a single ticket from January to February 2022 is about 0.22 yuan / ticket, an increase of 140.55% year-on-year compared with 0.09 yuan / ticket from January to February 2021, and the price increase results in peak season are guaranteed.
Yuantong's performance continues to exceed market expectations, the trend of simultaneous rise in volume and price continues, and the phenomenon that the industry is not light in the off-season deserves attention. It is suggested to actively grasp the sector investment opportunities brought by the Q1 of 6 Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) 022 and the elastic release of the annual performance.
The growth rate has picked up, and the growth center of head enterprises is not pessimistic
In terms of business volume, in January 2022, the business volume of the express industry increased by 3.30% year-on-year to 8.774 billion tickets. Considering the impact of the Spring Festival, from January 17 to February 6, the express industry collected 3.89 billion pieces, an increase of 34.1% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the cumulative delivery business volume was 4.46 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 36.94%. The prosperity of industry demand was upward.
From January to February 2022, Yuantong's business volume was 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; Among them, the business volume in January was 1.329 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 4.81%; In February, the business volume was 968 million tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 82.99%. Benefiting from the improvement of e-commerce penetration, the trend of small parts of express delivery and the business volume overflow caused by the clearing of franchisees of tail enterprises, the business volume of head enterprises is expected to maintain a high growth center.
Verification of industry price toughness and guaranteed performance
In terms of single ticket price, the single ticket income in 6 Anhui Wantong Technology Co.Ltd(002331) month was 2.72 yuan, yoy14.5 yuan 55%，MoM8. 80%, excluding the impact of the company's rookie wrapping business settlement mode adjustment on the single ticket income of express service, the single ticket income of Yuantong was 2.62 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.34%, and the unit price maintained a positive year-on-year increase for six consecutive months. The preliminary verification of the industry's price toughness shows that Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) is expected to have better than expected Q1 performance.
For the whole year of 2022, the single ticket profit is expected to remain at the 2021q4 level, while the scale effect and refined management can continuously optimize the cost side. The single ticket profit elasticity of head express enterprises is large, and attention is paid to the sector investment opportunities released by the performance of e-commerce express in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating adjust the profit forecast according to the company's operating data. It is estimated that the operating revenue of 6 Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) 0212023 will be 44.602 billion yuan, 53.819 billion yuan and 60.714 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.174 billion yuan, 3.280 billion yuan and 4.407 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE of 25.62, 16.98 and 12.64 yuan respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, the price war is restarted, the management improvement is lower than expected, the cost control is lower than expected, and the franchisees have burst their positions
