\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 563 Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) )
The company released the 2021 performance express, and achieved a revenue of 15.419 billion yuan during the period, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.41% / – 20.26% respectively in 2020 / 2019; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 84.39% / – 4.07% respectively in 2020 / 2019. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 5.398 billion yuan in a single quarter, up from – 6.2% / – 11.16% in 2020 / 2019 respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 543 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8% / + 124.38% respectively in 2020 / 2019. In recent years, the statistical standard of the company has changed from net method to total method, and kidiliz was stripped in September 2020. If calculated according to the comparable standard, the revenue in 2021 is expected to be + 10.06% / – 5.35% year-on-year in 2020 / 2019 respectively (the revenue in 2020 / 2019 is 14.01/16.291 billion yuan); The net profit attributable to the parent company was + 14.06% / – 20.16% year-on-year in 2020 / 2019 (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020 / 2019 was 1.302/1.861 billion yuan); The single quarter revenue of 21q4 was – 2.2% year-on-year (the single quarter revenue of 20q4 was 5.776 billion yuan); The net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of 21q4 was – 7.82% year-on-year (the net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of 20q4 was 589 million yuan).
Online business is still beautiful, and Q4 revenue declined slightly under the influence of external factors. The company’s revenue in the single quarter of 21q4 was 5.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, mainly due to the high base of 20q4, the high temperature in winter, the repeated epidemic in some areas and the poor overall terminal demand, resulting in the weak terminal retail of the company during the period. However, the company actively implemented the omni-channel operation strategy throughout the year, and it is expected that the online business will still maintain a good growth (from January to September 2021, the e-commerce business increased by 13.6% and the revenue accounted for 38.17%). During the Double Ninth National Day of 2021, Senma e-commerce realized omni-channel gmv22 RMB 9.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 33.76% / 66.52% respectively in 2020 / 2019. Balabala brand has ranked first in the category of mother and child of tmall’s double 11 for seven consecutive years, and minibala has maintained rapid growth.
Under the brand and product upgrading, the profitability is improved. Q4 performance declined year-on-year, mainly due to weak terminal sales of overall clothing brands. However, with the upgrading of the company’s product structure and strict control of discounts (it is estimated that the company’s annual gross profit margin will still increase significantly year-on-year (42.83% in the first three quarters under comparable standards, year-on-year + 3.38pcts), and the net profit margin is also expected to increase significantly. The annual net profit margin is expected to be 9.64% (excluding the impact of consolidation, the net profit margin in 2020 is expected to be about 9.4%). Meanwhile, the company accrued 471 million yuan of asset impairment loss in 2021, including 334 million yuan of inventory falling price reserve. The impairment reduced the total profit of the company’s consolidated statements in 2021 by 733758 million yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company by 637819 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: in the long run, the leading position of balabalabala children’s wear is stable (the market share is 7.1% in 2021, and only 2% in the second place). In the future, with the improvement of quality and the expansion of categories, it will cover more customers and further improve the market share; The casual wear business actively carries out younger transformation, improves the fashion and functionality of products (fabric upgrading, focusing on wearing scenes), actively arranges new channels such as social e-commerce favored by young people, optimizes offline channels, and continues to improve the efficiency and digitization of the supply chain to improve the success rate of new products and improve the overall operation quality. The casual wear business is expected to continue to recover in the future. Considering that the terminal recovery is slightly slower than expected, it is expected that the net profit in 2022 / 23 will be 1.738/2.015 billion yuan respectively (originally 18.82/22.45), the corresponding EPS will be 0.65/0.75 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 10 / 9 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: repeated outbreaks lead to lower than expected risks in terminal retail; The risk of channel expansion not reaching the expectation; The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
