\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Events
On March 9, the company released the operating data from January to February 2022. During the Spring Festival of 22 years, the company’s product sales increased well and achieved a “good start”; During the preliminary accounting period, the total revenue was about 2.45 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 940 million yuan, an increase of about 26% at the same time.
Business analysis
The short-term business data met expectations and the Spring Festival started well. The company disclosed the operating data from January to February. The steady growth of revenue and profit is in line with previous expectations. It is expected to mainly benefit from the continuation of consumption upgrading dividends and the improvement of Spring Festival demand in the province. On the product side, four opening and counter opening are still the core products of the company. The four opening price in the province is 420 ~ 425 yuan, and the counter opening price is about 260 yuan. At present, the proportion of V series is expected to be less than 10%. On the channel side, according to the channel feedback, the current cost is inclined towards the V series. We expect that the overall cost side investment is also expected to increase, and the profit side may be flexible under the subsequent structural upgrading. In addition, the flexibility of the company’s expenses has also been improved, and the front-end has more control over the expenses, which will be conducive to consumer cultivation and marketing model innovation according to local conditions.
There are still plenty of development points outside the province, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of regional expansion. Outside the province, the company mainly operates with Guoyuan + Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) dual brands, and the key markets continue to promote. We expect that the proportion outside the province is about a large single digit, and there is still room for development from the 20% target at the end of the 14th five year plan. At present, the proportion in the province has not increased significantly. We believe that the main reason is that the growth rate of the company in the province is relatively considerable. Although the growth rate outside the province is relatively higher, the excess range is limited; The company will still practice the strategy of “peripheral focus” and focus on the “2 + 5” key markets. We suggest paying attention to the double line logic of “structure optimization + regional expansion” of the company. At present, there is still room for product end upgrading, and the company will also increase the support of high-end series. Previously, the company disclosed the production expansion plan, increased the capacity scale and reserve capacity, and superimposed the progress of model markets outside the province. We expect to maintain steady growth in the medium and long term and achieve the 14th five year plan target.
Profit forecast
Taking into account the accelerated pace of demand recovery in the province, we raised the net profit attributable to the mother for 21-23 years by 2% / 5% / 7% respectively; It is estimated that the growth rate of the company’s revenue in 21-23 years will be 25% / 24% / 22% respectively, corresponding to a revenue of 6.4/79/9.7 billion yuan; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 28% / 25% / 23% respectively, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2 / 25 / 3.1 billion; EPS is 1.59/1.99/2.44 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 29 / 23 / 19 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk statement
Repeated epidemic risks, less than expected expansion outside the province, increased risks of regional competition and food safety problems.
