\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 358 Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) )
Core view
Rapid growth of performance and improvement of profitability. The company achieved a revenue of 2.54 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 580 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 289%. Benefiting from the high market boom, the company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 44.9%, up 9.6pcts year-on-year compared with 35.3% in 2020.
The positive 12 inch epitaxial wafers have been shipped on a large scale, and the acquisition of Guojing's equity has been promoted smoothly: in terms of 6 / 8 inch silicon wafers, the company's production line is operating at full load, and the supply of heavily doped silicon epitaxial wafers with special specifications is in short supply. The scale of 12 inch silicon wafers is obvious. The company has made major breakthroughs in key technologies, product quality, production capacity and customer supply. By the end of 2021, it has reached the production capacity of 1.8 million wafers per year, and has realized large-scale production and sales; The technical capability has covered more than 14nm technical nodes, logic circuits, image sensor devices and power devices have covered the technical nodes required by customers, and have been shipped on a large scale. At present, the main products sold include polished pieces, test pieces and epitaxial positive pieces. At the same time, the verification of customer sample delivery and the climbing of production and sales are being carried out continuously. The verification cycle of heavily doped wafers is short, and the production and sales of 12 inch silicon wafers are expected to climb rapidly. The price of silicon wafers is expected to keep rising in 2022: 8-inch silicon wafers and 12 inch silicon wafers signed by sumco, Xinyue and other manufacturers with customers in 2022 will increase by about 10% and 15%. At the same time, the company plans to hold Guojing semiconductor (400000 pieces / month, 12 inch light doped silicon wafer capacity, which is in the stage of equipment installation and commissioning, customer introduction and product verification). At present, the company has signed an equity acquisition agreement, which is expected to strengthen the strength of light doped silicon wafer.
Photovoltaic and new energy vehicles drive the performance improvement of power devices: the company's power device products are mainly used in automotive electronics, photovoltaic and other fields. In 2021, photovoltaic products accounted for 46% of the total shipments of power devices in the whole year, accounting for 43-47% of the global sales of photovoltaic chips. In the future, we will continue to benefit from the increased demand for supporting chips brought by the increase of photovoltaic installed capacity. In addition, the company's shipments of trench chips increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 260%; Flat Schottky products increased by 170% year-on-year; The monthly orders of Schottky and MOS chips related to power supply far exceed the actual maximum production capacity, and continue to be full production and sales, with supply exceeding demand. At present, the delivery date of global power devices remains high, and the downstream photovoltaic and automobile space of the company's main power devices is large and the growth rate is fast, which is expected to help the company's power device business maintain high profitability.
Actively layout compound semiconductors to further open up growth space: the company has developed 0.15 μ A number of processes and products with the characteristics of low cost, high performance, high uniformity and high reliability, such as me modephemt, have successively entered the market, formed a large-scale commercial sales and maintained the momentum of rapid volume increase. It has more than 60 high-quality customer groups, including angruiwei and xinbaite. At the same time, it is continuously carrying out the verification of customer sample delivery and the climbing of production and sales. With the rapid increase of production and sales, this part of the company's business is expected to turn losses into profits and contribute new profit growth points to the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the earnings per share of the company will be 2.04, 2.83 and 3.71 yuan in 22-24 years (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 1.97 and 2.80 yuan, mainly adjusting the assumption of capacity utilization of different products and reducing the tax rate). Considering that the localization rate of large-size silicon wafers is still at a low level and the company has broad growth space in the future, we choose the absolute valuation method (FCFF), Give the company a target price of 163.47 yuan and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
The prosperity of silicon wafer industry is lower than expected; The downstream demand of power devices is less than expected; The localization progress is less than expected; The business expansion of compound semiconductor is less than expected; Production capacity deployment and construction were not as expected.
