\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 72 Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) )
The performance is in line with the previous forecast; In 2021, revenue increased by 40% and net profit increased by 183%
In 2021, the revenue will reach 16 billion yuan (+ 40%); Net profit of 490 million yuan (+ 183%), deducting non net profit of 480 million yuan (+ 252%). The net cash inflow from operating activities was about 2.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 392%, mainly due to the slowdown of supply chain payment rhythm after the rush installation of onshore wind power, the decrease of advance payment (- 72%) and the increase of accounts payable (+ 58%), as well as the significant increase of orders and contract liabilities (+ 37%).
Q4 achieved revenue of 7.3 billion yuan (+ 61%) in a single quarter; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 230 million yuan (+ 118%). In Q4, the gross profit margin was 19.6% and the net profit margin reached 3.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3pct and 0.8pct respectively.
The main driving forces for the improvement of profitability: the expansion of income cost scissors and the effect of installed capacity scale
1) according to the rhythm of revenue recognition of wind turbines, the main revenue recognized by the company in 2021 is the high price orders signed in 2019 / 2020. After overland wind power rush installation in 2021, there is a certain price reduction of parts, and the widening scissors difference between revenue and cost leads to the increase of gross profit margin, which leads to the increase of net profit margin.
2) in 2021, the company's external sales capacity was about 5.5gw, with a year-on-year increase of 51%; The newly signed orders were 12.8gw, a year-on-year increase of 259%. The scale effect brought by the rapid growth of external sales capacity has promoted the continuous improvement of net interest rate.
There are abundant reserves of large MW wind turbines on land. The new hoisting capacity will enter the first echelon in 2021, and the project based on 4.5 MW will be completed in 2021 XMW、5. XMW、6. Design and development of more than 13 complete machine products on xmw platform; Comply with the trend of large-scale units. According to the data of Bloomberg new energy finance, the new hoisting capacity of the company in 2021 was 7.64gw, accounting for 14% of the Chinese market, ranking third and entering the first echelon, second only to Jinfeng and Yuanjing. From 2017 to 2021, the company's market share in China increased steadily from 4% to 14%.
The "two seas strategy" has been promoted rapidly, and the R & D expenses have increased rapidly, laying the foundation for medium and long-term growth
In April 2021, the first 7mw unit of the company's "Haifeng series" was officially offline; In September, the wd2259000 platform resistant offshore unit of 9mw harrier platform was released, and it is expected to be delivered in batches in 2022; In 2020, the company won the bid for four projects in Vietnam, with a total of 169mw. In June 2021, the company signed the first batch order contract for overseas offshore units. The company maintained 3.6% of its revenue invested in R & D, laying the foundation for medium and long-term growth.
Benefiting from the large-scale units and the reduction of hourly power cost, the demand for new installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan is expected to exceed the expectation. With the large-scale units and the rapid decline of hourly power cost of onshore wind power, combined with the total installed capacity target of more than 1200gw in the action plan for carbon peaking before 2030 of the State Council, it is estimated that the average annual new installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan will reach 59gw; "Replacing small with large and wind power to the countryside" may bring an annual incremental demand of 10-20gw.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 620 / 760 / 870 million, with a year-on-year increase of 27% / 22% / 14% and PE of 19 / 15 / 14 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) price fluctuation of parts; 2) The promotion of wind power policy is less than expected
