\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company disclosed the operation from January to February 2022. After preliminary accounting, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%?
During the Spring Festival, the mobile sales were good, and the proportion of blue and white increased. From January to February 2022, the revenue exceeded the market expectation and the profit met the market expectation. According to the data disclosed by the company, the revenue from January to February of 2021 is about 5.5 billion yuan and the profit is about 1.8 billion yuan. It is calculated that the profit margin from January to February of 2021 is 32%; The revenue from January to February 2022 has exceeded 2021q1, and the company's profit margin from January to February 2022 reached 36%, mainly due to the further increase of the proportion of Qinghua Fen Liquor. We expect that the proportion of Qinghua Fen Liquor exceeds 2021q1 (about 40%), with a strong momentum.
Continue to make efforts in the blue and white product series, and the product price is stable. At the dealer conference in 2021, the company once again made it clear that Qinghua Fen Liquor is the inevitable choice for the revival of Fen Liquor, and said that in 2022, we should vigorously promote the implementation of assessment and incentive policies, focus on resources, and ensure the rapid improvement of the three indicators of "Qinghua Fen liquor sales index, Qinghua 20 terminal index and Qinghua Fen Liquor opinion leader group". From January to February 2022, the proportion of blue and white increased. According to channel feedback, the wholesale price of Renaissance version was stable at about 830840 yuan, and the wholesale price of blue and white 20 was stable at 375 yuan / bottle; Bofen will strictly implement the quota system, control goods and replace them. The launch of the new Bofen is also worth looking forward to.
The new Commander took office and continued to help the revival of Fenjiu. Since taking office, President yuan, the new chairman, has maintained the implementation of the established strategy and continued to promote the high-quality development of Fenjiu in an all-round way. In terms of region, the company has made it clear that it will continue to expand the market volume of the base and increase its preference for the market in East and South China. The consumption potential in the market south of the Yangtze River is expected to be gradually released and the journey of nationalization will be accelerated.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the potential energy of Fenjiu has been continuously released, the process of nationalization has been continuously accelerated, and the new chairman took office in January this year, and the established strategy has been continuously promoted. We will adjust the EPS from 6.06/7.92/10.06 yuan to 4.39/6.35/8.41 yuan in 20212023 (affected by the share offering in 2021, the year-on-year EPS is 6.15/8.89/11.77 yuan), The current market value corresponds to 62 / 43 / 33 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. Considering the continuous correction of systemic risks in the near future, the company's performance is excellent. In the next two years, peg is about equal to 1. At present, the price performance ratio is prominent, and it is raised to the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the expansion outside the province is less than expected, the reform is less than expected, and the blue and white mobile sales are less than expected
