\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 033 Lijiang Yulong Tourism Co.Ltd(002033) )
Event: the company released its annual report. In 21 years, it achieved revenue of 358 million yuan / – 16.87% YoY, net profit attributable to parent company of -38 million yuan / – 153.63% YoY, and net profit attributable to non parent company of -33 million yuan / – 146.28% YoY deducted. In Q4 alone, the revenue was 68 million yuan / – 56.69% YoY, the net profit attributable to the parent was -49 million yuan / – 321.69% YoY, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was -44 million yuan / – 275.41% yoy.
Since the second half of last year, the epidemic has repeatedly affected the recovery of tourism demand, and the recovery of passenger flow is weak, resulting in limited income recovery. In 2021, the company’s cableway transportation / impression performance / hotel operation / catering service revenue was RMB 166 / 0.46 / 110 / 09 million, a year-on-year increase of – 20.93% / – 32.32% / 3.67% / – 31.26%, of which (1) the decline in cableway business was mainly due to the decline in the number of tourists. In 2021, the cableway received 2.614 million passengers / – 22.40% YoY; (2) Impression Lijiang performed 334 times, received 477600 tourists / – 26.68% YoY, and the revenue was 46 million yuan / – 32.15% yoy. The company’s Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue increased by 74.58% / 144.32% / – 50.94% / – 56.69% year-on-year in 21 years. In the first half of the year, the revenue recovered significantly, but in the second half of the year, affected by the multi-point epidemic in some areas, especially in the peak summer tourism season, the company was basically closed, resulting in the decline of the company’s revenue.
Cost rigidity and Diqing new project lead to pressure on short-term performance. The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years is 46.14% / – 9.40pctyoy, the net profit margin is – 10.49%, and the net profit is – 38 million / – 149.57% yoy. The cost side is rigid. The company’s 21-year sales expense rate is 7.20% / + 1.46 pctyoy, the management expense rate is 39.25% / + 10.00 pctyoy, and the financial expense rate is -2.43% / -0.04 pctyoy. The primary reason for the company’s loss is that the epidemic has occurred in many places across the country since the third quarter of 21, resulting in the weak recovery of passenger flow in the peak summer tourism season. At the same time, the newly opened indig hotel in Diqing Moonlight City also suffered losses this year.
Looking forward to the follow-up, at present, the number of local cases continues to increase, the epidemic situation in Hong Kong is severe, and China’s tourism is still restrained in the first quarter of 22 years; The Ganhaizi Tourist Distribution Center project of Yulong Snow Mountain scenic spot invested by the company is planned to be completed and put into use by the end of 22, which is conducive to enhancing the retention viscosity of the stock passenger flow in the scenic spot in the future. In the long run, Lijiang is in the golden period of superposition and release of various favorable policies. With the continuous promotion of Lugu Lake Mosuo town project and the expansion and improvement of Yulong Snow Mountain scenic spot, combined with the upgrading of the intelligent marketing system of “a mobile phone tour to Yunnan”, under the premise of effective control of the epidemic situation, the market influence of the company’s products is expected to increase, so as to promote the growth of business benefits.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As the epidemic situation in China is still repeated, we predict that the company’s EPS will be 0.14/0.31/0.42 yuan in 202224 (0.38/0.41 yuan in 22 / 23 years before adjustment). Due to the great disturbance of the epidemic situation to the performance of industrial companies in 2022, we estimate the value according to 26 times PE of comparable companies in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 8.13 yuan, and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was not as expected; The progress of new projects is less than expected; Weak consumer demand, etc
