\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Matters:
Company announcement: from January to February 2022, the company achieved 2.297 billion tickets of express business, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was about 516 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 207.45%.
Guoxin transportation’s view: 1) the price competition in the express industry remains relaxed. The company continues the price strategy of last year’s peak season. From January to February this year, the express price level is strong, the operating cost is controllable, and the single ticket profitability of the express business continues to improve month on month (according to our estimation, it is about 0.2 yuan from January to February and about 0.15 yuan in Q4 last year), resulting in the performance exceeding expectations. 2) Considering the continuous optimization of the company’s operation and the steady improvement of its profitability, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years to 21.2/29.7/33.9 yuan (the increase range of the predicted value for 21-23 years is 0.0% / 11.9% / 8.3% respectively), corresponding to pe26 / 19 / 16x. We believe that in the context of common prosperity, the competition of express leaders has been upgraded from price war to diversified competition of “taking into account price and service”. In the future, the scale and profit of express leaders will enter the stage of steady growth, and Yuantong with strong competitive strength is expected to win in the process of competition pattern evolution and maintain the “buy” rating.
Comments:
From January to February, the growth rate of business volume rebounded, the price was strong, and the profit performance was bright
From the perspective of business volume, the business volume of Yuantong achieved a growth rate of 27.8% from January to February, which was significantly higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year (12.7% in 21q4). We think it is mainly due to the improvement of service quality in the express industry. This year, the company orderly and widely implemented the “no closing in the Spring Festival”, and obtained more incremental business during the Spring Festival. From the perspective of price, the price competition in the express industry maintained a moderate trend. The company continued its price strategy in the peak season last year. From January to February this year, the express price level was strong, the operating cost was controllable, and the single ticket profitability of the express business continued to improve month on month (according to our estimation, it was about 0.2 yuan from January to February and about 0.15 yuan in Q4 last year), resulting in the performance exceeding expectations.
The price war in the industry will remain relaxed, and the repair logic of the performance of express leaders will continue to be fulfilled
(1) due to the high base in 2021 and the gradual slowdown of online penetration of e-commerce, the demand growth of express industry will slow down significantly in 2022. (2) In the context of common prosperity, the leading express enterprises began to take into account the price and service quality, and the competition pattern has been substantially optimized after Jitu acquired the express business of Baishi in China. We believe that the price war in the industry will remain relaxed in 2022. (3) Under the background of easing the price war in 2022, the single ticket profit of Yuantong will remain relatively high, and the profit is expected to achieve rapid growth.
The competitive strength continues to improve and the long-term value of the company is highlighted
Yuantong has been continuously optimizing its business model in the past two years, so as to see the continuous improvement of Yuantong’s cost control ability, and the cost of single ticket express delivery continues to keep up with the leaders of its peers. In addition, the company is also continuing to promote the comprehensive digital transformation. Through digital management tools, the company strengthens the accurate control of various indicators such as the whole process duration, complaint rate, loss and damage of express, and continuously improves the timeliness, service quality and customer experience of express. We believe that under the background of common prosperity, the competition of express leaders has been upgraded from price war to diversified competition of “taking into account price and service”. In the future, the scale and profit of express leaders will enter the stage of steady growth, and Yuantong with strong competitive strength is expected to win in the evolution of competition pattern.
Investment advice: the performance exceeded expectations and maintained the “buy” rating
Considering the continuous optimization of the company’s operation and the steady improvement of its profitability, we raised the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years to 21.2/29.7/33.9 yuan (the increase range of the predicted value for 21-23 years is 0.0% / 11.9% / 8.3% respectively), corresponding to pe26 / 19 / 16x. We believe that in the context of common prosperity, the competition of express leaders has been upgraded from price war to diversified competition of “taking into account price and service”. In the future, the scale and profit of express leaders will enter the stage of steady growth, and Yuantong with strong competitive strength is expected to win in the process of competition pattern evolution and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Policy risk, industry demand is lower than expected, and the price war worsens.
