\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 801 Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) )
Event:
The plan of transferring B to h of the company has been approved by the CSRC and has recently entered the stage of declaration of cash option and cross-border custody transfer of overseas shareholders. At the same time, the capital expenditure plan is disclosed. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is planned to invest nearly 60 billion to promote enterprise transformation and upgrading and high-quality development. The capital expenditure in 2021 is 7.16 billion yuan, and the planned expenditure in 2022 is 12.2 billion yuan.
A century old store, the scale continues to expand
The company was founded in 1907. By the end of 2021, the company has an annual cement grinding capacity of 116 million tons in 14 provinces and cities in China and eight overseas countries (the seventh in the world), 43.8 million cubic meters of commercial concrete, 154 million tons of aggregate (the second in China), 700 million cement bags and 5.53 million tons of waste disposal.
Expand capital expenditure and speed up overseas layout + integrated structure
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is planned to invest nearly 60 billion to promote enterprise transformation and upgrading and high-quality development. The capital expenditure in 2021 is 7.16 billion yuan, and the planned expenditure in 2022 is 12.2 billion yuan. (1) Accelerate the “going to sea” of cement business: in 2021, the acquisition and asset delivery of cement in Zambia and Malawi were successfully completed, the transformation of 1.5 million ton cement grinding station of marvini factory in Tanzania was completed, and the narayani cement clinker production line project in Nepal was put into operation in January 2022. At present, the company’s overseas cement production capacity reaches 12.19 million tons / year. (2) High gross profit aggregate business: 59 million tons of aggregate capacity was added. After all 10 aggregate projects under construction were put into operation, the aggregate capacity of the company reached 270 million tons / year. (3) Rapid layout of concrete integration business: 20 concrete integration stations have been completed and put into operation; Firmly implement the integration strategy along the river, and add two new stations based on the implementation of Changzhou project, with a total new concrete production capacity of 16.7 million m3 / year.
Environmental protection, carbon reduction and overweight to build future cost competitiveness
In terms of environmental protection business, the short-term goal is to control the comprehensive energy consumption of clinker in all kiln lines below 110kgce / T and kiln lines with a daily output of 2500 tons or less below 100kgce / T through coordinated utilization of alternative fuels and technological transformation; In terms of emerging industries, Zhuzhou and Jianchuan environmental protection bricks were put into operation in 2021, with an additional capacity of 180 million pieces. Hainan aerated block brick / board factory + Yunxian aerated block production line produced smoothly, with an additional capacity of 850000 m3 / year. Changyang ceramsite, Xiangyang lime and Wanyuan lime projects have been successfully put into operation, with an additional capacity of 390000 tons / year.
In 2021, the traditional heat consumption of the company’s cement products decreased by 15.7kcal/kg, and the comprehensive energy consumption of comparable clinker in 11 kiln line factories was lower than 100kgce / T. In the context of double carbon, as a high energy consuming enterprise, the market transaction price of cement is not limited by a 20% rise, and energy conservation and emission reduction can directly reduce the cost.
Investment suggestion: with the recent financial expansion, there is no shortage of projects and funds for infrastructure construction, which is expected to hedge the downward pressure of Q1 economy. In the infrastructure chain, we should pay attention to the anti inflation ability of cement sector. Centennial Huaxin is full of growth vitality and fosters growth opportunities in multiple dimensions such as aggregate, environmental protection, concrete and overseas. Recently, the demand for cement in central and southwest China has gradually recovered and the price has increased. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.4 billion, 6 billion and 7 billion respectively, and the dynamic PE corresponding to the closing price on March 9 will be 8, 7 and 6x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the project funds are not in place as expected; The weather changes are less than expected; The acquisition process is not as expected; Overseas policy changes.
