\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 050 Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) )
The annual revenue in 2021 is in line with the expectation. It is optimistic about the growth driven by auto zero business for a long time and maintains the "buy" rating
The company issued a performance express. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.971 billion yuan (+ 31.88%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.682 billion yuan (+ 15.02%) in 2021. In a single quarter, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 4.251 billion yuan (+ 20.89%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 389 million yuan (+ 5.06%). Considering that the price of raw materials in 2021q4 is still high and the pressure on profitability is obvious, we lowered the profit forecast for 20212023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20212023 will be RMB 1.682/22.52/2.903 billion (originally RMB 1.860/24.20/2.977 billion), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.47/0.63/0.81, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 36.7/27.4/21.3 times. In the long run, Optimistic about the volume of new energy vehicles and the proportion of auto zero business, driving the company's performance growth and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Short term raw material price disturbance caused profit pressure, and it is optimistic that the auto zero business will drive profit improvement
The company released the operating data from January to February 2022. It is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 3.06 billion yuan (+ 40%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 290 million yuan (+ 30%), and a net interest rate of about 9.48% (-0.73pct). The profitability is still under pressure. We believe that it is mainly due to the high price of raw materials and the increase in the proportion of low gross profit integrated module components business. The net interest rate increased by 0.34pct month on month compared with 2021q4, showing a marginal improvement trend. We believe that it may be due to the gradual implementation effect of the company's price adjustment policy for downstream customers. In addition, the implementation of the policy of jointly bearing shipping freight will further stabilize the profitability of the company. Looking forward to the future, with the continuous volume of new energy orders and the mass production of technical transformation projects, the gross profit margin of the company's auto zero business is expected to stabilize and recover under the scale effect, so as to drive the growth of the company's performance.
The position of the core main industry of valve parts is stable, and it is optimistic that the delivery of new energy orders will drive the growth of auto zero business
For the whole year of 2021 and from January to February of 2022, the company's revenue increased by 31.88% and 40% respectively. In terms of specific split: (1) the market position of the three major valves is stable. It is expected that the domestic sales of air conditioning valves will increase by 30% year-on-year in 2021. According to the industry online data, the market share of the sales volume of electronic expansion valve / stop valve / four-way valve in 2021 reached 41.49% / 26.41% / 42.14% respectively, and the market share of 2022m1 reached 53.78% / 38.92% / 53.0% respectively, highlighting the leading advantage in the valve market. (2) The delivery of new energy orders has made steady progress. It is expected that the revenue of the company's auto zero business will increase by more than 60% year-on-year in 2021, and the market share of thermal management will increase. Looking forward to 2022, with the mass production and listing of new energy models related to customers such as GM, SAIC and BMW, it is expected that the auto zero business will maintain a rapid growth trend.
Risk warning: the market competition of air conditioning valve is intensifying; Rising prices of raw materials; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
