\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 563 Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) )
In 2021, the net profit reached 79.97 – 92.38% of the profit forecast, maintaining the “buy” rating
The net profit of the company is expected to reach 79.97 – 92.38% of the profit forecast in 2021, with a revenue of 15.419 billion yuan (+ 1.41%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.486 billion yuan (+ 84.39%). The rapid growth of the net profit is mainly due to the low base of the operating performance in the same period affected by the epidemic and the loss of the French kidiliz group; The operation quality of the existing business continued to improve, and the revenue and gross profit margin increased. Excluding the consolidated loss of K group, the net profit in 2021 increased by 14.06% under comparable standards. In a single quarter, it is estimated that the revenue of 2021q4 is 5.398 billion yuan (- 6.20%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 543 million yuan (- 7.90%), and the growth rate is 1 PCT / 51 PCT lower than Q3. Considering that adult clothing is still in the adjustment period, we lowered our profit forecast and predicted that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.49/17.9/2.06 billion (previously RMB 1.58/18.5/2.22 billion), corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.6/0.7/0.8, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 12.1/10.1/8.7 times. The share of children’s clothing is still expected to increase and continue to maintain the “buy” rating.
The market share of adult and children’s clothing is high, and its share and revenue are expected to increase in the future
(1) adult clothing: in 2021, Senma ranked 10th in the market share of adult clothing, benefiting from the weakness of foreign brands, and its share is expected to increase in the future. (2) Children’s clothing: in 2021, the market share of balabalabala was 7.1%, ranking first among children’s clothing brands. The market share of foreign brands has declined due to the superposition of the three child policy, and it is expected that there is still room for improvement in the future; In 2021, the image of balabalabala stores entered the seventh generation, and more than 1000 stores upgraded their image. At present, the repurchase rate of members is ahead of the industry. In the future, with the layout of sports lines and the launch of high-end lines, the brand strength and revenue are expected to be further improved.
In 2021, the number of children’s clothing stores increased net, and the growth rate of new online channels was rapid
(1) offline: the number of adult clothing stores in 2021 is basically the same as that of 3091 stores in 2020. The net number of children’s clothing stores is expected to be positive, and it is expected to continue to expand in 2022. The trend of opening children’s clothing stores has driven the normalization of the superimposed epidemic environment, and adult clothing is expected to usher in the expansion of opening stores in 2022. (2) tiktok: during the double eleven period in 2021, the company’s revenue increased from 1 billion 718 million to 2 billion 298 million yuan, and the jitter and Jingdong growth were expected to increase 5-10 times. Balabala has become tiktok tiktok in 2021, and now it is the second largest channel for children’s wear line.
The net interest rate has improved in 2021, and the annual inventory is expected to remain at a high level
(1) profitability: in 2021, the net interest rate was 9.64% (+ 4.34pct) and Q4 net interest rate was 10.06% (-0.18pct), mainly due to the improvement of operating efficiency and product discount. (2) Operating capacity: the book value of the company’s 2021q3 inventory is 4.023 billion yuan. The 2021q4 inventory has increased year-on-year and month on month, mainly due to the large increase in the stock of winter clothing, but the Q4 sales are at a normal level, resulting in a small probability of new inventory.
Risk tip: the epidemic affects the recovery of sales, intensifies industrial competition and worsens the inventory situation.
