\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
Event description:
On March 9, the company released its annual report for 2021. According to the announcement, the company achieved revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 46%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 7.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51%; The gross profit margin was 42%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8 percentage points; The net interest rate was 30%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year.
Actively ensure supply, control cost and improve efficiency, and ensure profit growth in the face of rising raw materials.
In 2021, the price of the company’s main raw material coal rose, nearly doubling year-on-year. The company actively ensures supply and control cost in terms of raw materials, and actively optimizes and improves efficiency in terms of technology to ensure profits.
In terms of raw materials, the company actively contacted new and old suppliers, and introduced Xinjiang high calorific value coal as a supplement to ensure the stable supply of raw materials; Proactively predict the coal price and timely adjust the inventory to avoid the loss of high price inventory; Adopt the transportation mode with more price advantages to reduce costs.
In terms of process, the unit consumption of methanol (refined methanol) of the company’s MTO unit was 2.852 tons / ton, a decrease of 0.033 tons / ton over the same period of last year; The propane yield of demethanizer was increased from 0.29% to 0.53%. The unit consumption of raw coal (converted into 5400 kcal coal) of coal to methanol in methanol plant 1 and plant 2 is 1.41 T / T and 1.37 T / T, a decrease of 0.07 T / t over the previous year. With the capacity of coke, polyethylene and polypropylene unchanged, the output increased year-on-year. Meanwhile, the output of MTO grade methanol was 4.574 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.207 million tons, which reduced the purchased amount of methanol and saved the purchase cost.
Green development + high-end material layout, the company has broad development space.
On February 9, 2021, the company first built 30 sets of 1000 standard m3 / h electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment, and the electrolytic cell began power transmission commissioning. The green hydrogen production capacity was 240 million standard m3 / year (21400 tons), and the hydrogen produced by the project was sent to the chemical plant. The project adopts internationally advanced technology and equipment, and pioneers the direct supply of “green hydrogen” and “green oxygen” to chemical plants to replace raw coal and fuel coal for hydrogen and oxygen production. It can reduce the annual consumption of coal resources by about 400000 tons, the annual carbon dioxide emission by about 700000 tons and 5% of the total carbon emission of chemical plants. Since 2022, the company plans to invest 250300 million yuan per year to increase green hydrogen production capacity by 300 million standard cubic meters, and strive to complete 50% carbon emission reduction in 10 years and carbon neutralization in 20 years.
Based on the market demand, the company has developed polypropylene high melt index, thin-wall injection molding and high-end polyethylene products, such as medium melt copolymerization K8009, high melt copolymerization k7726h, open linear 7042h, thin-wall injection molding m600e and other brands, and trial produced metallocene polyethylene m3506rti, m6040 and m2310. With the progress of EVA project construction, the company has initially formed a cascade structure of general material products, special material products, metallocene products and EVA products, and products with higher added value will contribute more profits to the company.
In December 2021, the central economic work conference proposed that “new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control”. The new regulations make the total energy consumption space of the chemical industry larger, but the requirements for energy consumption intensity are also more stringent. The company ranks first in the coal to olefin industry in the list of “energy efficiency benchmarking enterprises of key energy consumption products in petroleum and chemical industry in 2020” released by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and Chemical Industry Federation, with the lowest energy consumption level, relatively advanced technology and environmental protection, which may contribute to the approval of the company’s projects.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.5 billion yuan, 11.9 billion yuan and 16.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20%, 40% and 36%. The corresponding PE is 14, 10 and 7 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The project construction is not as expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Product prices fell sharply; Production and operation risks of self owned coal mines.
