\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Core view
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations and maintains a high growth rate. The company issued a performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 62.367 billion yuan (+ 19.3%); The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 8.037 billion yuan (+ 34.1%), maintaining a rapid growth; The performance growth is mainly due to: 1) installed capacity growth: the growth of the company's nuclear power units in 2021 is mainly due to the commissioning of Tianwan 6 and Fuqing 5 units, and the installed capacity of new energy increased by more than 3.6gw. 2) Increase in utilization hours: the average utilization hours of the company's existing units in 2021 was 7871 hours, an increase of 250 hours over the same period last year. The foreign exchange gain was 832 million yuan, an increase of 317% over the previous year.
Nuclear power grew steadily and new energy developed rapidly. At the end of 2021, the company's total installed capacity was 31.42 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 23%. Among them, the installed capacity of nuclear power is 22.55 million kW (+ 11.5%), accounting for 71.8%; The installed capacity of new energy reached 8.87 million kW (+ 69%), accounting for 28.2%, an increase of 17.6pct. In terms of power generation, the company's total power generation in 2021 was 182.6 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. Among them, nuclear power increased by 16.7% year-on-year; New energy increased by 68.7% year-on-year, accounting for 5.2% of the total power generation.
The short-term centralized operation of nuclear power releases performance, and the long-term growth is expected to improve. The company put into operation in 2021, with a total installed capacity of 3.44 million kw of nuclear power, and released its performance in full in 2022. From 2024 to 2025, the installed capacity of 1.25 million KW will be put into operation respectively. By the end of the 14th five year plan, the installed capacity of the company's nuclear electric control unit is expected to reach 26.17 million KW. The policy supports the active and orderly development of nuclear power under the guarantee of safety. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the audit of nuclear power units of the company maintained long-term development: in the first three quarters of 2021, the company undertook all approved nuclear power in China, with a total of 5.203 million KW.
Relay development of new energy installation. According to the guidelines of the 14th five year plan of the company, the company plans to achieve 30GW of new energy holding installed capacity by 2025, which is about 6 times that of new energy by the end of 2020. The company's rights to give priority to the acquisition and development of new energy in CNNC will further ensure that the company can complete the new energy installation planning goal with quality and quantity, and help the country achieve the "double carbon" goal.
The market-oriented electricity price rises synchronously with thermal power, driving the nuclear power electricity price center to move up. The average tax excluding electricity price calculated for the income of 21 years is 0.365 yuan / kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 0.001 yuan / kWh. The annual trading volume of Jiangsu electric power in 2022 was 264.7 billion kwh, up 19.4% from the benchmark price. The annual trading electricity of Jiangsu nuclear power is no less than 16 billion kwh, and the electricity price is expected to rise with thermal power. In addition, the trading electricity price in Zhejiang, Fujian and other places is expected to be higher than that in the same period last year.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of new energy and nuclear power did not meet expectations, the electricity price was lower than expected, and the utilization rate of nuclear power declined.
Investment suggestion: Based on the current and future rise of nuclear power price and the improvement of utilization rate, the installed growth rate of new energy is expected to be further improved, and the growth of the company's performance is expected to be improved. The company's performance expectation is raised accordingly. It is expected that the company's earnings per share in the 21st to 23rd years will be 0.44/0.68/0.74 yuan (the previous value is 0.45/0.56/0.63 yuan), and the growth rate of net profit will be 34% / 54% / 9% respectively. Give about 15.9-16.7 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable valuation of about 10.83-11.38 yuan. Maintain the "buy" rating.
