\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
The company’s brand barrier is deep, the change of management brings positive changes, and maintains the “buy” rating
The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 23.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 17%. Among them, in the fourth quarter alone, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of about 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11%. Due to the slowdown of revenue rhythm in 2021q4, we lowered the profit forecast for 20212023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20212023 will be 23.35 (- 500) billion yuan, 26.74 (- 1.82) billion yuan, 31.56 (- 3.61) billion yuan and EPS will be 602 (- 0.12) yuan, 689 (- 0.47) yuan and 8.13 (- 0.93) yuan respectively. After the decline in the previous period, the valuation of the company is excessively discounted and the cost performance has been significantly improved, The current share price corresponding to PE is 28.6, 25.0 and 21.2 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The market digested inventory and superimposed the change of management. The growth rate in the fourth quarter was slightly lower, which was in line with expectations
Since the second half of 2021, the company has accelerated the pace of delivery and made great efforts to digest the inventory left over by history. The actual dynamic sales volume in the market is higher than that confirmed in the report, resulting in a trend of high product pricing and low revenue growth. The change of senior management team also has an impact on the rhythm of revenue. It is expected that the growth rate of Q4 performance is slightly lower.
During the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are benign, the inventory is low, and the effect of price support is worth looking forward to
During the Spring Festival, the progress of mobile sales is basically the same as that in the same period in 2021, and the channel inventory is in a reasonable position. One of the company’s follow-up key work will be to increase the price. It is expected to take measures, including phased volume control, special inventory of the market, expectation of price rise and so on. At present, the mobile sales are good, the inventory is low, and the price rise has a good market foundation, What the company needs to do is to balance supply and demand and strengthen channel confidence.
In 2022, young people are ready to play and are optimistic about the potential for subsequent improvement
The company’s brand barrier is deep. There are some twists and turns in the price of main products and the promotion of new products in 2021. In 2022, the company will pack light. At present, the company’s fundamentals and valuation are at the expected low point. It is optimistic that the market reform action after the personnel stability of the company’s management will lead to the rebound of pricing and drive the enthusiasm of channels, so as to achieve long-term sustainable development.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the increase of product prices is less than expected
