\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Event: according to the preliminary accounting of the company, it is expected to achieve a revenue of about 1.4 billion from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 140%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 465 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 130%.
Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) brand potential is upward, and the collection performance of the beginning of the year is brilliant. According to the research before and after the Spring Festival, we expect the company to get a good start, and the overall refund will exceed 40%, and the rhythm of the refund will be kept ahead of schedule. At the same time, the opening rate will be 22 to 1-2 months ahead of schedule. Considering that there is still surplus grain in March, we expect the income of 22q1 to increase or exceed 80%; Considering that the company stopped shipping in the later stage of 21q4, the overall revenue of 22q1 + 21q4 increased by more than 50%.
There are capacity expansion dividends at the lower edge of 1000 yuan price and secondary high-end price. We also felt the multiple demand of flavor and flavor after the upgrading of Baijiu consumption to the second high-end price in Anhui. Internal reference is at the price of 1000 yuan and drunkard is at the price of 300 yuan. It has the consumption foundation of minority pursuit of personalization, which is an opportunity given by the times. In addition, the policies of drunkard company in attracting investment are very flexible, which is also conducive to the rapid national layout.
If the price drop exists for a long time, it is a risk point. If the price is changed for quantity in the short term, the inventory is low, and the problem is not big. The bid price of internal participation fell to around 800 yuan, mainly due to the concentration of payment collection and the special existence of Gaoqiao market. The transaction price of consumers is still around 900 yuan, which has not been separated from the main competitive products. At present, the overall transaction price of drunkard series is low in the province, and you can enjoy the dividend of low price and large volume in the short term.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that the company’s revenue in 2022 / 2023 will be about 5 billion and 6.5 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.5 billion and 2.1 billion, corresponding to pe35x in 22 years. Considering the layout of drunkards at the sub high end and high-end price, there is much room for net interest rate improvement, so we maintain the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk; Market development is less than expected risk; Industry competition intensifies risks
