\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 363 Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) )
Agricultural and animal husbandry enterprises with the development of the whole industrial chain.
The company is building an integrated business model with "pig" as the core, "feed, pig raising and food" as the main business, "biopharmaceutical, raw material Trade and Agricultural Internet" as the supporting business. In 2021, the company sold about 3.246 million pigs (year-on-year + 237.00%), and the feed sales volume in the first half of the year was 2.0815 million tons (year-on-year + 33.43%).
Pig production capacity continued to be reduced, and the price of feed raw materials was at a high level.
By the end of January 2022, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.9 million, still higher than the normal number of 41 million. Under the background of strong supply and weak demand, the production capacity is expected to continue to be reduced, and the pig price is expected to run at a low level. In 2021, China's feed output was 293 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 16.10%; Due to the continuous high price of feed raw materials, feed enterprises are still facing great cost pressure.
The feed business has developed in an all-round way and is a new force in pig breeding.
① feed sector: the company is an expert in the subdivided field of pig feed, and takes advantage of the trend to vigorously develop poultry, aquatic products, ruminant, etc. by the end of 2021, the company's feed production capacity is about 7 million tons, and it is expected that the feed sales volume is expected to grow rapidly in the future. ② Pig breeding sector: the company has a complete breeding system. As of March 2022, the company has about 320000 sows (breeding + reserve) and sufficient production capacity; The company plans that the proportion of fattening pigs to be sold in 2022 / 2023 will be 50% / 75% respectively, and basically fatten in 2024; Since its listing, about 1.498 billion yuan has been invested in the construction of pig farm projects. By the end of 2021h1, 817 million yuan (year-on-year + 11.61%) has been invested in the construction of new / reconstruction and expansion projects in pig farms, with great potential for capacity release in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: the revenue of pig breeding sector is expected to continue to grow, and the profit margin will gradually improve with the recovery of pig price and the decline of cost. The feed business has entered the stage of simultaneous increase in volume and profit, and the food, veterinary medicine, animal protection and other businesses have continued to grow. Comprehensively considered, we expect the company to achieve a revenue of RMB 14.608201.82/28.439 billion from 2021 to 2023, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB -11.07 / - 724911 million, and an EPS of RMB -1.64 / - 1.07/1.35 respectively. It will be covered for the first time and rated as "overweight".
Risk tips: epidemic risks such as African swine fever and avian influenza, the risk of continued downturn in pig prices, the risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of policy changes, and the risk of less than expected slaughter of live pigs.
