\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 816 Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) )
Comprehensive improvement of core competitiveness: retail management ability + improvement of supply chain efficiency, and stride forward to the integration of large home furnishings
Sinking organization is conducive to category and channel coordination, and organizational structure change stimulates vitality; The regional retail center and warehouse distribution service pilot decompose the functions of dealers, bring about the redistribution of industrial chain value and improve channel efficiency; Integration of large household categories, large volume of bedrooms, functions and customized high potential categories, sales scene and package under large store mode, and increase the proportion of joint and several sales; E-commerce business is promoted to a first-class department and Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) develops in a coordinated manner; Vertically broaden the brand price band and extend the positioning; The digital marketing center fully empowers dealers and informatization improves the efficiency of the supply chain. We predict that from January to February 2022, the overall orders will increase by about 20% year-on-year (domestic sales will increase by about 20-25% and export sales will increase by about 15-20%). Considering the exchange risk, raw material price and other uncertain factors, the profit forecast is slightly reduced. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.685/20.52/2.496 billion (originally RMB 1.693/21.14/2.567 billion), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.67/3.25/3.95, and the current share price will be 24.1/19.8/16.3 times that of PE. The core competitiveness will be comprehensively improved, further move towards big home and be optimistic about the future growth space, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Analogy is the core advantage of software transformation and brand improvement
Compared with the mature white electricity industry, China’s software home industry is still in the stage of steady capacity expansion, and there is great room for improvement in penetration and concentration. Referring to the development of white power leading, we believe that category, brand expansion and channel reform are the key measures for software leading to build its core advantages. In terms of category, strong products are used as the flow entrance, extended to the sales of other products, and build a large home ecological chain; Build a high, medium and low-level brand matrix on the brand, and it is expected that the high-end category / brand will be the focus of differentiated competition in the future under the consumption upgrading; In terms of channel reform, the supply chain is close to users, continuously improve terminal control, gradually promote globalization and seek overseas increment.
Comparison with Anta: DTC transformed and reconstructed the human and freight yard, and channels, products and brands worked together to improve business efficiency
Anta’s strategic transformation has brought about a double rise in performance and valuation, thanks to: DTC’s transformation reshapes the “people and goods yard”, with remarkable results in improving the efficiency of channel operation, restructures the incentive mechanism for stores and personnel, opens Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , realizes inventory sharing, upgrades and transforms stores, opens large stores, and promotes the growth of the same store; Practice the strategy of “single focus, multiple brands and all channels”, and expand the brand matrix through multiple extension acquisitions. From the perspective of Anta’s retail upgrading Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , the sinking reform of organizational structure, the establishment of regional retail centers, the pilot of warehouse and service distribution, the deconstruction of dealer functions and the reconstruction of “people and goods yard” have resulted in the recovery of store efficiency and floor efficiency, the decrease of channel price increase rate, the improvement of turnover rate, the improvement of operation efficiency, the more focus of channels on category integration, comprehensive stores The unit price of big customers increased.
Risk tip: the recovery of demand in the household industry is less than expected, raw materials rise sharply, and the exchange rate fluctuates sharply.
