As the first in our carbon neutralization series, this report mainly studies and solves the following problems: 1. What is carbon neutralization and how to plan and implement policies; 2. Carbon emissions and intensity of chemical industry; 3. What are the changes in the chemical industry and the future development direction of enterprises under the background of carbon neutralization policy?
China has actively responded to climate issues, put forward clear carbon neutralization goals, and policy documents have been issued one after another
Climate change is an issue of global concern, and carbon emission is an important factor causing climate change. In the decade after China's entry into WTO, China's carbon emission has increased rapidly. In 2020, China's carbon emission accounted for about 31% of the global carbon emission, which is much higher than that of other countries and regions. In September 2020, Xi Jinping president clearly put forward the goal of "carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060" at the general debate of the United Nations General Assembly. In the past year, China began to fully deploy and implement the task of carbon neutralization. The State Council and relevant ministries and commissions have successively issued more than 20 policies. A series of documents will build a "1 + n" policy system of carbon peak carbon neutralization with clear objectives, reasonable division of labor, powerful measures and orderly connection.
We split the carbon neutralization policy document in detail and calculated the carbon peak emission reduction path. The results show that under the target situation, reducing energy consumption intensity is more important: the contribution rate of energy consumption intensity decline in the process of carbon peak is 76%, the contribution rate of energy structure adjustment is 22%, and the height of carbon peak in 2030 still has 4.42% growth space compared with that in 2020.
The overall carbon emission of the chemical industry is not high, but the unit emission intensity is high. The carbon emission is divided into two parts
There are many carbon dioxide emission links in the production of chemical products, which can be roughly divided into industrial process emission and utility emission. In terms of the total amount, the carbon emission from chemical processes, including petrochemical, accounts for no more than 4% of the total carbon emission in China, while it is divided into the range of medium and heavy intensity according to the unit emission intensity. Chemical industry is characterized by low total carbon emission and high carbon emission intensity.
In terms of structure, the carbon emission of public works in the chemical industry is affected by the high proportion of coal in the energy structure. Taking coal chemical enterprises as an example, the proportion of process carbon emission and public works carbon emission is generally the same, and there are great differences between different processes and products.
For the production carbon emission process of a typical chemical enterprise, taking the two dimensions of carbon emission intensity of public works and industrial process as the evaluation criteria, the existing chemical products can be roughly classified to analyze the energy efficiency level of different chemical products. Taking the product price into account, we divided the carbon emission intensity per unit income into four quadrants, further analyzed the carbon emission level per unit under the economic benefits of different chemical products, and found that the same type of chemical products are often concentrated in the same quadrant. Among them, coal chemical industry belongs to the chemical sub industry with high emission intensity of industrial process and public works.
Under the background of carbon neutralization policy, the short-term impact on Industrial Supply and demand, and the long-term development mode of chemical enterprises may change
We believe that the development model of chemical enterprises may change under the background of carbon neutralization. Under the dual carbon policy, it is more difficult to approve energy and raw materials, and the traditional rough development mode relying solely on capacity expansion may be unsustainable. In the future, the long-term development of chemical enterprises will follow the following three paths: 1. Downstream fine development; 2. Diversified development under the same raw material and technology path; 3. Platform development that provides solutions in the same application scenario.
Risk tips: changes in the time and intensity of policy implementation; Changes in policy implementation indicators; Industrial safety and environmental protection accidents
