From January to November, the export increased by 31.10% year-on-year, and the export in November alone increased by + 22.0% year-on-year and 8.4% month on month. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the export volume in November of the 21st year was 325.530 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of + 22.00%, 8.4% month on month compared with 300.221 billion US dollars in September of the 21st year, and the export volume from January to November of the 21st year was 302.6450 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%.
China’s export container freight index (CCFI) is still at a high level, with a weekly composite index of + 1.7% month on month. According to the weekly data of China’s export container index (CCFI), as of December 24, 2001, the CCFI composite index was 3300.19, still at a high level year on year, with a month on month ratio of + 1.7%, of which the US East / US West / European routes were + 5.5% / – 0.7% / + 1.1% month on month ratio respectively.
With the gradual control of the impact of the epidemic, Vietnam’s exports in November were 6.8% year-on-year and + 19.58% month on month. From January to November 2021, Vietnam’s exports totaled US $125.808 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 24.4%, including US $12.954 billion in November alone, a year-on-year increase of + 6.8%, compared with us $10.833 billion in October alone, a month-on-month increase of + 19.58%.
The inventory of wholesalers and manufacturers in the United States continues to grow, the replenishment of retailers has slowed down slightly, and there is still room for replenishment. Since the beginning of the year, the production and wholesale sectors in the United States have made a substantial replenishment. However, due to the obstruction of channels and transportation links, the retail side continued to de convert. The inventory did not turn positive year-on-year until June, and turned negative year-on-year again since September. In October 21, the total inventory of the United States / manufacturer’s inventory / retailer’s inventory / wholesaler’s inventory was + 9.1% / + 11.1% / – 1.4% / + 16.9% year-on-year. The inventory of wholesalers and manufacturers continued to grow. At present, it is at a high level, and there is still room for replenishment at the retail end. From the perspective of US imports, the import amount of intermediate goods / consumer goods / capital goods in October 21 was + 50.3% / + 11.5% / + 14.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate of import amount rose and fell.
Furniture exports from January to November were + 30.4% year-on-year, including + 1.89% year-on-year in November. From January to November 2021, the cumulative export of furniture and parts was USD 66.710 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 30.4%, of which USD 6.997 billion was exported in November alone, a year-on-year increase of + 1.89%, an increase of 8.20% over USD 6.467 billion in October 21.
From January to November, the export volume of functional office chairs (rotating seats with adjustable height under customs code 940130) was 30.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. In November 2021, the export volume in a single month was 2.921 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 14.7%, a month-on-month increase of – 5.9% compared with 3.105 billion yuan in October 21.
From January to November, the cumulative export volume of spring mattresses (customs code 940410) was 4.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.0%. The export volume of spring mattresses in November 2021 was 506 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21.3%, a month-on-month increase of 7.4% compared with 471 million yuan in October 21.
From January to November, the export volume of metal frame sofas such as functional sofas (customs code 940171) totaled 55.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.5%. In November 2021, the export volume of metal frame sofas was 5.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.5%, a month-on-month increase of + 10.5% compared with 5.031 billion yuan in October 21.
From January to November, the accumulated export value of artificial turf (customs code 57033000) was 7.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.0%. In November 2021, the export value per month was 768 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.4%, a month-on-month increase of + 15.8% compared with 663 million yuan in October 21.
From January to November, PVC flooring (customs code 39181090) achieved a cumulative export volume of 38.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.0%. In November 2021, the export volume in a single month was 3.680 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.3%, a month-on-month increase of – 12.82% compared with 4.221 billion yuan in October 21.
Exports are under pressure in the short term, and are optimistic about the improvement of supply side concentration and the further strengthening of leading competitive advantage in the long term. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern: (1) supply side: in the first half of the year, the income of listed export enterprises increased significantly and their profits were under pressure. In the second half of the year, they were still limited by the shortage of shipping capacity, the pressure of raw materials and the pressure of RMB appreciation. The growth rate of subdivided industries in the export sector gradually decreased. Under the long-term high pressure of the industry, it is not ruled out that some small and medium-sized production capacity may be cleared, and the industry concentration may be further improved; (2) Demand side: the global epidemic broke out in 20 years, and the demand for overseas durable consumer goods continued to increase. Since the second half of 21 years, with the improvement of the epidemic and other effects, overseas production capacity has gradually recovered, and the demand may tend to grow steadily. In the long run, (1) industry level: China has a stable position in the global supply chain and complete supporting industries, (2) At the company level: the household export leader has strong anti risk ability, takes the lead in the layout of overseas production capacity, has strong production and supply stability, and further strengthens its competitive advantage in overseas markets. It is suggested to pay attention to the household leaders [Minhua holdings], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], the segment track leaders [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ], and the increased penetration rate of single products [ Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) ], [ Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) ], [ Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) ] and [ Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) ].
Risk tips: epidemic prevention and control is not as expected, exchange rate fluctuations, and international trade policy uncertainty.
