Key investment points:
Looking forward to 2022, with the proposal of new carbon emission targets and the continuous spread of corresponding policies, new requirements and objectives are put forward for petrochemical bulk materials: in addition to meeting the use performance requirements, they should also meet the new requirements of minimizing the impact on the environment in the whole life cycle, We are optimistic about the investment opportunities in degradable plastics and renewable plastics in green low-carbon materials brought by policy driven under the background of this era.
2022 prospect of petroleum and petrochemical industry
Under the direct drive of China’s intensive plastic ban policy, disposable plastic products such as straw were taken off the shelves from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021. Then the performance short board of paper straw made the market determine and accept degradable plastics as the best substitute, superimposing the resonance of foreign policies and the advance and out of range layout of multinational large enterprises in response to policies, The demand for degradable plastics has been further boosted. The recovery rate of polyester beverage bottles can reach 94%. Therefore, through recycling, polyester bottle chips can greatly reduce the environmental pollution and carbon emission in the whole life cycle. It is one of the varieties with the highest potential for expanding the application of renewable plastics. Bottle chip has excellent characteristics and high cost performance. At the same time, it is strongly driven by downstream demand under the general trend of global bulk commodity price rise and transmission to the consumer end and the good supply and demand pattern.
Investment strategy in 2022
The unexpected alternative space will bring opportunities for the middle and upper reaches of Degradable Plastics: BDO, AA in the upper reaches of PBAT, lactide in the upper reaches of PLA and engineering construction in the middle reaches will usher in opportunities; Loose raw materials and low inventory open the harvest period of the bottle chip industry: the industry pattern of centralized upstream and decentralized downstream superimposes the loose supply of raw materials and low inventory, the processing price difference of enterprises in the bottle chip industry continues to expand, and the profit margin is expected to increase significantly.
Industry representative company
The representative companies in degradable plastics industry are Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) and East China Engineering Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002140) ; The polyester bottle chip industry is Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester Material Co.Ltd(600370) (600370. SH) (maintaining the “buy” rating), China Resources Chemical Innovative Materials Co.Ltd(301090) and Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) .
Risk statement
Global macroeconomic downside risk; The risk of substantial fluctuations in commodity prices; The risk that the implementation of industrial policies is not as expected; The risk that the project promotion and technological breakthrough are less than expected; Risk that downstream demand is less than expected; Anti dumping and other international trade policy risks.
