In November, China’s sales exceeded market expectations, and overseas sales rebounded month on month. In November, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China exceeded the market expectation, selling 450000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 121% / + 17%; In November, the Federation of passenger cars wholesale 429000 electric passenger vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 132% / + 18%, retail 317000, with a month on month ratio of + 122% / + 20%. In November, the wholesale penetration rate reached 20%, month on month + 2pct, and the retail penetration rate was 20%, month on month + 2pct. In 2021, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China is expected to reach more than 3.5 million (including exports), with a year-on-year increase of 160% +. The sales volume of electric vehicles in Europe rebounded in November. The total sales volume of 10 mainstream countries was 194000, with a month-on-month increase of + 31% / + 21% and a penetration rate of 27.6%. The electrification trend accelerated. Under neutral assumptions, we expect that the sales volume of electric vehicles in Europe is expected to reach 2 million in 2021. The sales volume of electric vehicles in the United States in November was 60000, with a month-on-month increase of + 80% / + 8%. Tesla‘s share increased month-on-month, and traditional car companies New energy vehicles continue to develop. We expect that the sales of electric vehicles in the United States will be 620000-650000 in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 90% +. We expect the global sales volume to exceed 6 million vehicles in 2021, maintain a 50% + high growth in 2022, and the sales volume will exceed 9 million vehicles.
Lithium battery technology continues to upgrade, and the production chain ratio of leading enterprises in the middle reaches continues to rise. The industrialization process of new lithium battery technology is accelerated: 1) lithium manganese iron phosphate is the direction of technology upgrading: lithium manganese iron phosphate maintains the stability of lithium iron and improves the energy density. We expect it to become the upgrading direction of traditional lithium iron and middle-end ternary, with a large amount in 2023; 2) The general trend of high nickel: manufacturers generally improve energy density through high nickel. Among them, single crystal and NCMA quaternary materials have made rapid progress. Mass production has begun in 2021, and the progress of ultra-high nickel is slow, which is still a long way from large-scale mass production; 3) The battery system structure has been continuously optimized, from traditional battery pack to CTP and then to CTC. The integration level has been continuously improved. Tesla CTC technology has been applied, and other manufacturers have gradually promoted it. The downstream demand for lithium battery continued to be high. In December, the leading production scheduling was + 5-10% month on month. China’s demand elasticity was greater than that of overseas enterprises, and the orders of overseas enterprises were stable as a whole. Enterprises are mobilized to have no holidays during the Spring Festival. We expect that the leading production scheduling in 2022q1 will be flat compared with Q4, the off-season is not light, and the prosperity will continue.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the battery link that will be profitable and repaired next year. The long-term pattern is the best. Next year’s demand also includes energy storage holdings, leading Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Second line Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) (focus), followed by high nickel ternary cathode ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ), iron lithium technology upgrade ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ); negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ), copper foil ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (focus), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ), diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ) which will continue to be in short supply next year ）, lithium carbonate ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (attention), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (attention)), electrolyte ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ), etc.
Risk tip: price competition exceeds market expectations, raw material prices are unstable, affecting profit margins, declining investment growth and the impact of the epidemic.
