1. What are the core investment opportunities related to automotive electronics?
A: we pay attention to the revaluation opportunity of value growth in 2022, which is reflected in the revaluation after innovation and business model upgrading on the demand side, and the revaluation of auto parts under intelligent empowerment
1) Connectors: focus on upstream copper alloy materials Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) , high-speed connectors Electric Connector Technology Co.Ltd(300679) and high-voltage connectors Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , focus on Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Shanghai Laimu Electronics Co.Ltd(603633) , Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) , Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) , etc.
2) PCB: focus on Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co.Ltd(603228) , Olympic Circuit Technology Co.Ltd(603920) , Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) of technological breakthrough + capacity expansion
3) IGBT & SiC: pay attention to relevant enterprises that have achieved 0-1 breakthrough + grasp the localization opportunity of shortage downward, start large-scale production, and pay attention to Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , East micro semiconductors, etc
4) Lidar: the industry has a space of 10 billion yuan and is currently at the starting point of high growth. It pays attention to Ju Guang technology, Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) , Sun Yu optical technology, Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319)
5) EMS: pay attention to ushering in the new opportunities of the Sixth National Congress and further realize the Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) of domestic substitution
6) Components: focus on Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.Ltd(002138) of early card position automotive electronics, etc
2. Ten questions and ten answers of the third generation semiconductor in the core plate of automotive electronics
1) Value dismantling – Q: what is the value dismantling of silicon carbide industry chain?
A: different from traditional Si materials, the cost of SiC substrate materials accounts for nearly 50% of the overall cost. The total cost of sic6 inch wafer is about 6400 yuan, of which the value of substrate + epitaxy is about 3840 yuan.
2) Price reduction trend – Q: what is the price trend of silicon carbide downstream devices? What is the price difference with silicon-based devices?
A: different from Si materials, the substrate accounts for 7% of the average cost structure of the previous process, and the cost of SiC substrate materials accounts for nearly 50% of the overall cost. The total cost of sic6 inch wafer is about 6400 yuan, of which the value of substrate (55%) and epitaxy (5%) is about 3840 yuan.
3) Device structure – Q: what is the proportion of various silicon carbide devices?
A: in 2019, the proportion of SiC diodes is significantly higher than that of sicmosfet and modules. With the continuous maturity of sicmosfet technology, it is expected to exceed the proportion of diodes in the future. The module has the fastest growth rate and is expected to account for 50% in the future.
4) Development process – Q: what is the core of silicon carbide cost reduction? When will it usher in the turning point of comprehensive cost advantage and accelerated growth?
A: capacity expansion + improvement of long crystal technology + development of new technology will drive the substrate cost to decline at a rate of 10% – 20% every year. It is expected that sic2022 will usher in a growth inflection point, and the global market space is about 700-1 billion US dollars. In order to accelerate the growth period from 2024 to 2026, the market space is about US $1.5 billion. In order to accelerate the growth period from 2024 to 2026, the market space is about US $2.1 billion
5) Energy calculation – Q: how much energy savings can silicon carbide bring at the vehicle end in the era of carbon neutralization?
A: the energy saving of SiC per vehicle compared with that of Si material for one year: 1) it is equivalent to saving 5.5 barrels of oil per car per year; 2) the owner saves more than $146.15 in power cost per year; 3) it reduces 690kg of CO2 greenhouse gas emissions per year
6) Depot layout – Q: how many depots and vehicles use silicon carbide?
A: according to the data of Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) Trina Solar wide band gap semiconductor technology innovation alliance and our statistics (incomplete), the vehicle manufacturers introduce SiC in 7 OBC and DC-DC, 4 electric drives and 10 electric drives. It is expected that there will be more than 1 million units in 2021 and double in 2022. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) Automotive enterprises first apply SiC devices in OBC and DCDC, and then gradually penetrate into motor controllers with higher reliability requirements.
7) Supply estimation – Q: what is the current capacity and future layout of silicon carbide in China? Overseas capacity layout?
A: China: according to Casa’s statistics (incomplete) in 2020, the equivalent 6-inch SiC substrate will be 180000 pieces, the epitaxy will be 220000 pieces, and the device will be 260000 pieces; globally, we calculate that the equivalent 8-inch production capacity will be 773000 pieces in 2022 and 1119000 pieces in 2024.
8) Demand estimation – Q: how many pieces of silicon carbide will be needed for the future new energy vehicle & Photovoltaic?
A: we estimate that the consumption of SiC in 6-inch silicon wafer of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 1.2 million in 2025; The consumption of SiC 6-inch silicon wafer in photovoltaic field is expected to exceed 1.3 million in 2025; The consumption of Gan in power electronics 6-inch silicon wafer is expected to be nearly 700000 in 2025; In RF, the consumption of 6-inch silicon wafer is expected to peak in 2022, exceeding 40000.
9) Technology comparison – Q: what is the generation difference between China and overseas third-generation semiconductor industry chain?
A: In conclusion, except that the localization rate of LED chips in China exceeds 80%, other sections are basically different from those in foreign countries from generation to generation.
10) Overseas leader – Q: how about wolfspeed capacity & yield & financial planning?
Answer: 1 Capacity calculation: the company’s 8-inch capacity will reach 479000 pieces / year in 2022 and expand to 694000 pieces / year in 2024. 2. Calculation of grain output: 40476 grains (die) are expected to be produced in 2022 and 58643 grains in 2024.
3. Number of patents: as of November 2021, the number of patents related to the third generation semiconductor was 2939.
4. Financial outlook: it is expected to achieve a revenue of $526 million in fiscal year 2021, $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2024 and $2.1 billion in fiscal year 2026. The proportion of device sales will gradually increase. It is estimated that the gross profit margin will be 30% – 40% from 2022 to 2023, will continue to increase to 50% from 2024 to 2025, and will be 50% – 54% in 2026.
Third generation semiconductor investment suggestions: focus on Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , nano micro semiconductor, Huahong semiconductor, Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Sai Microelectronics Inc(300456) , Jiangsu Jiejie Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300623) , Jilin Sino-Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600360) , Tianyue advanced, Phenix Optical Company Limited(600071) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) , etc
Risk tip: the risk of industrial policy change, the aggravation of international trade disputes, the demand risk caused by the development of downstream industries not as expected
