Event: on December 14, the exclusive provisions for new energy vehicle insurance (Trial Implementation) was officially issued, and the exclusive insurance for new energy vehicles was officially launched nationwide on December 27.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles continues to grow rapidly, but at present, the proportion of new energy vehicles in vehicle insurance is relatively small. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars reached 2.517 million in the first November of 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 178%; According to the statistics of the Ministry of public security, as of September, the number of new energy vehicles has reached 6.78 million, accounting for 2.28%. We expect that the proportion of new energy vehicles is expected to rise to 20% in the next five years. The current proportion of new energy vehicle insurance is still low. It is expected that the market share will increase significantly with the increase of ownership.
We expect that the exclusive terms of new energy vehicle insurance will have a neutral impact on cor in the property insurance industry, and the risk and rate will be more matched. Commercial auto insurance premium = benchmark premium × Rate adjustment factor; Where, rate adjustment coefficient = no compensation preferential treatment coefficient × Traffic violation coefficient × Independent pricing coefficient. By item:
The benchmark premium decreased as a whole, but the benchmark premium of “new power” model is expected to increase. Overall, the benchmark premium of third party insurance and vehicle damage insurance for new energy vehicles decreased by about 0.8% compared with the current benchmark premium of traditional vehicle insurance, of which the benchmark premium of third party insurance decreased by 0.1% and the benchmark premium of vehicle damage insurance decreased by 1.2%. Among them, the increase of benchmark premium of some models is mainly due to the impact of claim settlement cost. For example, Tesla, velai and other “new forces” models contain more electronic components and high maintenance cost, resulting in the increase of benchmark premium.
In terms of rate adjustment coefficient, it fluctuates according to the benchmark premium, and the compensation risk of the overall matching model. We judge that for the “new force” model, the independent pricing coefficient has decreased compared with the previous model, and the increase of premium is less than that of benchmark premium. Due to the high compensation of new energy vehicle insurance, the independent pricing coefficient is high. After the benchmark premium is adjusted this time, the independent pricing coefficient is also reduced.
For cor, the impact is overall neutral. We expect that before the release of the exclusive provisions for commercial insurance of new energy vehicles (for Trial Implementation), the cor of new energy vehicle insurance is not significantly higher than that of traditional models, and the overall underwriting profit is low. Although the benchmark premium is slightly reduced this time, after considering the rate adjustment coefficient, cor is expected to maintain roughly the same level as before.
Investment suggestion: Generally speaking, the price of “new power” brand auto insurance generally rises, but the price of traditional brand new energy auto insurance generally falls. Among the “new forces”, Tesla, Weilai and Xiaopeng increased significantly, while the benchmark rates of traditional conversion to new energy such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Roewe and BAIC generally decreased, and the auto insurance compensation risk and rate were more matched, which had a neutral impact on the cor of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to China Property Insurance and The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) .
Risk warning: the cost drop is lower than expected; The product loss ratio is higher than expected; Some new energy vehicle insurance prices squeeze out demand
