The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the goal of steady growth is clear. Since the second half of 2021, domestic demand has been insufficient to repair, real estate policies have been tightened, and macroeconomic downward pressure has increased. It is expected that the economy will still be under pressure in 2022. It is expected that cross cycle and counter cycle macro-control efforts will be strengthened, the banking industry can achieve stable volume increase and price, steady expansion of asset scale, stable low interest rate and further expansion of business coverage under the environment of abundant liquidity and moderate regulatory policies.
Small and micro manufacturing industry is the focus of the public, and the recovery of consumer demand helps retail break the situation. Policies guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. Inclusive small and micro enterprises and manufacturing loans are still expected to maintain rapid growth. The policy side will help restore residents' consumption power, which is expected to drive the rapid growth of consumer finance and accelerate the retail transformation of banks. In recent years, banks have made great efforts in the layout of wealth management business and realized the rapid growth of wealth management scale. There is still great development potential in the future.
The scale of credit grew steadily and the structure of credit supply was adjusted. The banking industry has recovered to its pre epidemic level, loan demand is expected to rebound, the total amount of credit will maintain stable growth, and the credit structure will be steadily optimized. Interest rates fell and interest rate spreads stabilized. Comprehensive RRR reduction + 1-year LPR reduction, the loan interest rate is generally stable, the net interest margin will continue a stable trend, or narrow marginally, and the bank's profit expectation is generally stable. Asset quality improved and bank differentiation intensified. The quality of bank assets is significantly improved compared with that before the epidemic, the follow-up economy is under pressure, the business differentiation of commercial banks is intensified, and some banks will continue to be strong.
Investment suggestion: under the policy environment of wide currency and wide credit, the scale of bank assets is expected to maintain the growth level in 2021, the net interest margin bottoms out and stabilizes, and the net interest income grows steadily with high certainty. Through comprehensive analysis, it is preferred to select high-quality banks with good fundamentals, business layout in line with the development direction and logic: first, large wealth management, banks with retail competitive advantages and can realize light capital and weak cycle. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) . Second, inclusive small and micro enterprises + banks with sufficient manufacturing resources and steady growth of credit scale. It is suggested to pay attention to: Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) .
Risk tip: the economic growth is less than expected, and the asset quality is down; The policy was adjusted more than expected.
