Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) (300093)
The main industry of fireproof glass is leading, and the strategic transformation hjt is expected to bring high growth
The company is a leading enterprise in the fireproof glass industry. At present, its products mainly include fireproof glass system and explosion-proof glass system. In recent years, affected by the downturn of industry prosperity and changes in management, the profit level fluctuates greatly. In April this year, the controlling shareholder of the company has changed from no actual controller to ouhao group. As of 21q1-3, the company's profit has turned around. At the same time, the company has implemented strategic transformation since this year. In June, it announced that it would invest 832 million yuan to build a new 1.2gwhjt battery and module project, which is expected to be put into operation in early 2022. We believe that the company is expected to receive a "overweight" rating for the first time.
Photovoltaic is essentially lcoe, and heterojunction is expected to lead the next generation of photovoltaic technology
The theoretical efficiency of perc technology is 24.5%. At present, it has developed to the bottleneck, and the essence of photovoltaic is the cost of kwh. Therefore, the industry seeks change and technology continues to break through. There are two main development directions in n-type battery: TOPCON technology improved on perc technology and new heterojunction technology. Due to the high sunk cost, the old leaders are more willing to upgrade TOPCON in the short term; Meanwhile, in the new round of technological transformation in the industry, new entrants have sufficient market space to lay out the next generation photovoltaic technology heterojunction battery (hjt). Compared with TOPCON, hjt technology has the advantages of fewer process steps and clear cost reduction path, and has great potential in the future. According to pvinfolink's prediction, the capacity of hjt battery will reach 42.3gw by 2025 and the CAGR will be 57.4% from 2021 to 2025.
With the latest equipment, the company's GW production line is about to be mass produced
In June, the company announced to invest 832 million yuan to build a 1.2gw battery and module project. The project adopts half chip front-end process, 210 large-size, the largest single scale, and the final component power exceeds 700W. It is the first in the world and the first GW level whole line delivery and hjt3.5-mw of Maiwei hjt equipment First order for 0 device. At the same time, hjt team has rich production experience in photovoltaic industry to ensure the smooth progress of the project.
Latest progress: at present, the equipment has been mobilized for commissioning. We expect to start the production capacity climbing in Q1 next year. The performance of hjt project in the next three years will be gradually released. After it is fully completed, it is expected to achieve an annual revenue of more than 2 billion yuan and a net profit of about 120 million yuan. At the same time, the company relies on the major shareholder ouhao group. Ouhao has quickly laid out the new energy industry and announced the investment and construction of 4.8gw heterojunction project this year. We believe that the subsequent investment and expansion of the company will have the capital guarantee and strategic support of the major shareholder. The supply of silicon wafers is guaranteed: the company has signed a 22 year procurement contract with central to purchase no less than 70.1 million n-type G12 silicon wafers (up to 74% of the demand in the current year). At present, the corresponding battery power of 210 silicon wafers is about 10.1w, the corresponding shipment is no less than 0.71gw, and the raw materials with 1.2gw heterojunction capacity are fully guaranteed.
Investment suggestion: we believe that with the entry of the new management of the company and the signing of a cooperation agreement between the traditional main business of fireproof glass and Schott, the profitability is expected to recover gradually. At the same time, the performance of the 1.2gwhjt project is expected to be released gradually next year. We believe that the performance flexibility of the company in the next three years is high. To sum up, we expect that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 395 / 1032 / 2467 million, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 02 / 0.42/140 million. It will be covered for the first time and rated as "overweight".
Risk tips: the progress of photovoltaic installation is less than expected, the expansion of hjt project is less than expected, the cost reduction of hjt technology is less than expected, the price of silicon material is higher than expected, and there have been stock price changes within half a year
