Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369)
event:
On December 29, the 2022 Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Development Conference of "focus on high quality and focus on new leaps" was held, and we conducted research on the company.
In 2021, with high-quality development, the "14th five year plan" has made a successful start. Overall, 1) the company's annual performance is expected to maintain high growth. In 2021, the company overcame the impact of the epidemic, and while its revenue reached a new high in the first three quarters, Q4 continued to maintain a good development trend in 2021. 2) Continuous optimization of product and regional structure. In the first three quarters, the V-series of super-a national margin increased by 120% year-on-year, accounting for 10.7%; The new version of the fourth open was successfully introduced and the volume and price were improved; Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) D20 / d30 series increased by 235% year-on-year. At the same time, the regional development of the company is more balanced, and the whole region has achieved high growth in the province; The market growth of "2 + 5" key sectors outside the province exceeded 35%. 3) The management level and marketing service ability have been significantly improved. In 2021, the company will further improve the supply chain system and improve the management level; At the end of the year, V99 alliance was established to actively attract large and excellent suppliers, strengthen manufacturer cooperation, jointly participate in head competition and achieve high-quality development.
In 2022, we will speed up strongly and strive to "complete the five-year goal ahead of schedule". In 2022, the company's marketing work will continue to deepen the "three modernizations" and "four campaigns", Focus on the deployment of V-series (improving the potential energy of V9 brand, promoting group purchase and highland market), open series (ensuring the implementation of control and profit sharing), Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand (highlighting the cultivation of D20 / d30) and the plate outside the province (striving to account for more than 20% of the revenue outside the province at the end of the 14th five year plan), and orderly establish V9, Guoyuan and Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Three major brand divisions and Gaogou sales company to deepen marketing reform. In the future, the company will set the tone of "seeking speed in the best, taking the best word as the head, and being fast as possible". Considering the strategic demand of "completing the five-year goal ahead of schedule", the company's various measures are expected to accelerate the implementation and achieve a comprehensive acceleration in 2022.
The company will continue to enjoy the secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus in the future. As for the long-term concerns of the market, such as unfavorable expansion outside the province and intensified competition in the province, we believe that even if we do not consider expansion outside the province in the future, the strengthening of weak areas and channel sinking in the province can also support the company's revenue to achieve rapid growth; In the context of the continuous expansion of the secondary high-end price belt in Jiangsu market, it is too early to worry too much about the competition in the province. On the whole, the company's precision card position is sub high-end, and the product and regional structure have been continuously optimized in recent years; Meanwhile, the company completed the stock repurchase on November 30. In the future, after the equity incentive is implemented, the brand potential energy and profit elasticity are expected to accelerate the release.
Profit forecast and investment rating. The company's product structure is excellent, and will continue to enjoy the secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus in the future. The good landing of equity incentives will also bring catalysis. We continue to be optimistic about the future growth of the company. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.56/1.98/2.52 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 37.2/29.4/23.0 times respectively. The company will be given a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk tips: 1) repeated epidemic situation leads to consumption inhibition; 2) Increased market competition leads to increased costs; 3) the sharp fluctuation of the economy caused the price of Baijiu to slide; 4) The pace of product upgrading is less than expected; 5) Food safety risks. In case of any difference between the relevant data and information and the contents published by the company, the contents published by the company shall prevail.
