Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event: in November 2021, the company sold 122510 new cars, a year-on-year increase of – 15.7%. By brand, Haval sold 69170 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of – 32.1%; The sales volume of wey brand was 6286, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.1%; The sales volume of Great Wall pickup truck was 20810, a year-on-year increase of – 8.0%; The sales volume of Euler brand was 16136, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%; The sales volume of tank brand is 10108.
The sales volume continued to improve month on month, and the monthly sales volume of the four models reached a new high. The company’s sales volume increased by 9.3% month on month in November, and the impact of core shortage was gradually alleviated. Among the key models, the monthly sales volume of Haval h611 is 32443, the sales volume of Haval big dog is 10345, the sales volume of tank 300 is 10108, the sales volume of Euler good cat is 8855, and the sales volume of wey Mocha is 4776. Among them, the monthly delivery volume of Haval big dog, tank 300, Euler good cat and wey Mocha has reached a record high. In addition, the company’s electrification speed accelerated, and the sales of pure electric vehicles accounted for 14.6% in November.
New models enrich the company’s product matrix and help the demand side remain strong. At present, the new car cycle of the company is progressing smoothly. The new models listed from November to December include Haval flagship SUV, Haval beast, medium and large luxury off-road SUV tank 500, machito dht-phev and latte DHT of wey brand. The new models to be listed next year include wey Mocha PHEV, Euler ballet cat, Euler lightning cat and Euler punk cat. The listing of new models will further enrich the company’s product matrix. We believe that the new models supported by the new platform have strong product power, and the end consumers have high recognition of the company’s new products. They are optimistic about the sales growth after the chip problem at the production end is alleviated.
System reform and technological innovation build the company’s long-term core competitiveness. The company changed the underlying structure, changed its enterprise positioning from “automobile manufacturing enterprise” to “user service operation enterprise”, and changed its business model to “product + software + service”, which laid a foundation for it to effectively tap market demand. At present, the company has a number of core technologies such as lemon DHT hybrid technology, hydrogen lemon technology, Dayu battery, 3.0T + 9at / 9hatp2 powertrain and has strong R & D strength, which is expected to accelerate the development of new tracks in the future.
The company’s profit forecast and investment rating: the company has high terminal recognition of new models and the steady progress of new car cycle. We believe that it is mainly due to the change of the company’s underlying organizational structure and the accumulation of new energy and hybrid technologies for many years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 7.92 billion, RMB 11.72 billion and RMB 13.59 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.86, RMB 1.28 and RMB 1.48 respectively. The current share price corresponds to the PE values of 56, 38 and 33 times from 2021 to 2023 respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the industry demand is low, the company’s new models are less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicles is less than expected.
