Event: on March 8, the passenger car Federation released the production and sales data of passenger cars in February: the wholesale sales volume was 1.455 million, with a year-on-year increase of 26.9% and a month on month decrease of 32.6%; The retail sales volume was 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month on month decrease of 40.0%; The production of passenger cars was 1.492 million, with a year-on-year increase of 31.4% and a month on month decrease of 27.0%.
In February, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars increased by 26.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales volume from January to February increased by 13.6% year-on-year, achieving a good start. In February, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 1.455 million, with a year-on-year increase of 26.9% and a month on month decrease of 32.6%. Retail sales volume was 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month on month decrease of 40.0%. Due to the advance of the Spring Festival in 22 years, the pre holiday peak sales period was 10 days less than that in 21 years, but the demand for replenishment and the peak sales of new energy vehicles led to a year-on-year growth of 13.6% in the cumulative wholesale sales from January to February. The retail end sold 540000 self owned brands, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month on month decrease of 42%; The independent share reached 44%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3pct. The cumulative share from January to February was 44%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021. Mainstream joint venture brands retail 550000 vehicles, down 1% year-on-year and 36% month on month. Among them, the American market share reached 9.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6pct; The Japanese market share reached 23.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 PCT; Germany’s share was 20.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4 PCT; European shares increased by 0.1pct. In January, 160000 luxury cars were retailed, down 3% year-on-year and 44% month on month.
In February, the production of passenger cars increased by 31.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative output from January to February increased by 18.4% year-on-year. In February, 1.492 million passenger cars were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 31.4%, a month on month decrease of 27.0%, and the degree of core shortage was improved compared with last year; From January to February, the cumulative output increased by 18.4% year-on-year, with strong performance. Among them, the production of independent brands increased by 38% year-on-year and decreased by 31% month on month; The production of joint venture brands increased by 31% year-on-year and decreased by 22% month on month; Luxury brand production increased by 15% year-on-year and decreased by 27% month on month.
In February, 317000 new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, with a new energy penetration rate of 21.8%. In February, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 317000, with a year-on-year increase of 189.1% and a month on month decrease of 24.1%, which was better than that in February 2021 (- 39.5%). Among them, the sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were 245000 and 72000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 161.7% and 350.9% respectively. The top 5 vehicle enterprises with wholesale sales volume are Byd Company Limited(002594) 87473, Tesla China 56515, SAIC GM Wuling 26046, Geely 14285 and Chery 10271 respectively. In February, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 21.8%, up 2.9 PCT month on month, up 12.2 PCT from 9.6% in the same period last year. Among them, the penetration rate of independent new energy is 38%; Luxury brand new energy penetration rate 29.4%; The penetration rate of mainstream joint venture new energy is only 3.3%.
New energy vehicles are expected to maintain high growth and traditional vehicles usher in recovery. In terms of new energy vehicles, the decline in subsidies and the rise in raw material prices have led to the rise in the prices of some models. At present, the overall terminal demand continues to be strong. We expect the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles to reach 5.65 million in 22 years (including 4.18 million pure electric vehicles and 1.47 million plug-in hybrid vehicles). In terms of traditional cars, the shortage of chips has eased compared with last year. With the continuous launch of new products by car enterprises, the demand has ushered in the release, the inventory cycle is expected to continue to improve, and the traditional passenger cars are expected to usher in a recovery.
Focus on recommending high-quality independent vehicle and parts enterprises. Among vehicle enterprises, high-quality industry leaders are highly recommended: Byd Company Limited(002594) (E platform 3.0 and DMI models are launched at the same time), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (accelerated expansion of new energy vehicles, upward bottom of fuel vehicles and significant performance flexibility contributed by the joint venture), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (fuel, hybrid and pure electricity usher in a strong product cycle), Xiaopeng automobile (leading in product intelligence and gradually increasing volume); Among the parts companies, Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (expanding new forces + first-line autonomy + overseas high-quality customers), Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) (benefiting from the large number of new forces customers), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (benefiting from the high-end of the lamp industry) are recommended.
Risk tip: there is a continuous shortage of chips, the progress of new products is less than expected, and the sales volume of new models is less than expected.
