Core view
Silicon wafer is the semiconductor material with the largest demand, with a market size of US $12.6 billion in 2021. Semiconductor silicon wafer, also known as silicon wafer, is the cornerstone material of more than 90% of semiconductor devices in the world. The semiconductor wafer manufacturing enterprise is responsible for the core process of silicon wafer manufacturing. The market scale of semiconductor silicon wafers fluctuates with the prosperity of the semiconductor industry, with obvious periodicity. According to semi's data, in 2021, the global sales of semiconductor silicon wafers were about US $12.6 billion (yoy12.5%), the shipment area was about 14.2 billion inches (yoy14.2%), and the CAGR from 2011 to 2021 were 2.4% and 4.6% respectively.
The industry barrier is high, taking advantage of mergers and acquisitions, and the industrial CR2 reaches 50%. Catch up from behind China's IC industry a space for one person to take the lead in the semiconductor industry. The Korean and Chinese Taiwan enterprises also have a place in the world. After several acquisitions, the market share of Japan's Xinyue and SUMCO in 2020 was 28% and 22% respectively. China's Taiwan world's wafer market accounted for 15%, Germany's world electronics market accounted for 11%, and Korea's SKSiltron market accounted for 11%. The manufacturing process of semiconductor silicon wafer is complex and the amount of early investment is large. It has significant technical barriers, certification barriers, capital barriers and talent barriers. It has outstanding first mover advantage and scale effect.
The demand for small-size semiconductor silicon wafer is stable, the demand for 8 inches is strong, and the shortage of 12 inches is expected to reach 2026. Based on cost considerations, discrete devices continue to use small size, and integrated circuits gradually migrate to large size. According to the data of omdia, in terms of shipping area, 12 inches accounted for 70.9%, 8 inches accounted for 22.6% and small size accounted for 6.5% in 2021; It is expected that the demand for small size will remain stable from 2021 to 2025, and the demand for 8 inches and 12 inches will increase. As the expansion of the 12 inch production line of semiconductor silicon wafer manufacturers lags behind the increase in demand, sumco expects that the supply of 12 inch silicon wafer is in short supply, which is expected to continue until 2026; Universal wafer also said that the order visibility will reach 2024, and it is expected that the annual production line in 2022 will continue to be fully loaded and the price will increase.
The supply and demand of the local semiconductor silicon wafer industry are booming, and the rise of China's large manufacturers is accelerating. According to SEMI's prediction, 25 new 8 inch wafer fabs and 60 12 inch wafer fabs will be added in the world in 20202024 years, including 14 and 15 Chinese mainland respectively. In the case of tense international relations, the export of high-end 12 inch silicon wafer technology is restricted, while the domestic rate of China's 12 inch silicon wafer is less than 10%. In order to ensure the safety of the supply chain, local wafer factories have actively introduced domestic silicon wafers since the Sino US trade friction. The new demand in the aiot era and the increase of national production rate have brought growth opportunities for China's semiconductor silicon wafer enterprises.
Investment suggestion: focus on large-scale mass production enterprises and enterprises dominated by market segments. Combined with the historical trend of sumco and universal wafer, the valuation and performance of semiconductor wafer enterprises are strongly related to the prosperity of the industry. Considering that China's semiconductor industry is in the medium and long-term boom upward cycle under the background of domestic substitution, the silicon wafer enterprises that take the lead in mass production of 12 inch products have the first mover advantage and are expected to lead M & A and integration in the future. The representative enterprises include National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , super silicon semiconductor (not listed), etc. On the other hand, small-size silicon wafer enterprises have outstanding profitability due to small initial investment and large-scale sales. The representative enterprises include Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) , mesk (unlisted), Youyan silicon (unlisted), etc.
Risk tips: 1. The demand is less than expected; 2. The localization process is not as expected; 3. Increased competition, etc.
